In the run-up to the past several air shows, the usual suspects—analysts and industry experts—predicted that this time the Paris (or Farnborough) event would be boring, yielding neither orders nor launch decisions. And for the past several years, the experts were wrong. 
A flood of unexpected new orders left many wondering whether the cyclicality that has been such as dominant feature of the business for decades was gone for good; still others were warning of a huge bubble on the verge of bursting that would bring a new set of problems or exacerbate those already afflicting the aerospace and defense arena. And while no completely new aircraft have been launched recently, significant iterations of existing aircraft have been set in motion—two neos (Airbus A320 and A330), one MAX (Boeing 737) and new 777 versions. The orders for the A320neo in particular have been easily surpassing expectations.
But this could be the year the analysts are right. All the possible derivatives except one (A380neo) have been launched. And most of the sales campaigns that could be described as strategic have either been decided or are not yet on the horizon. The focus will likely gravitate to execution—managing the transition from the A320 to the A320neo, the NG (next generation) to the MAX, the A330 to the A330neo and the 777 to the 777X—all while ramping up production of key programs and keeping the supply chain intact.
Dassault, which recently scored several orders for the Rafale throughout Asia, will be featuring the aircraft at the Paris Air Show. Credit: Dassault

Two factors that heavily influence air transport decisions have undergone a sea change since Farnborough 2014—fuel prices have dropped dramatically and the U.S. dollar has strengthened. The consequences from both are complex and differ from airline to airline. Sometimes dollar and fuel effects cancel each other out, sometimes they do not. Both factors are carefully monitored by airlines and their suppliers.
A third item being closely monitored is interest rates. For now they are relatively static, but when the inevitable climb happens, industry fundamentals will again shift to adapt.
In the weeks leading up to Paris, it has become increasingly unlikely that Airbus will launch a reengined version of the A380, dubbed the A380neo. While Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier said late last year that the aircraft would be launched at some stage, he has recently chosen a more cautious tone. Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders all but ruled out the possibility of an A380neo launch in Paris. The reasons are obvious: Launching a major derivative based on the buy of just one customer—even if that customer, Emirates in this case, seeks 200 of the type—is not a sound business move. The manufacturer is not yet convinced it will sell enough of the neos to justify the up to €4 billion ($4.4 billion) in research and development that would be needed for the endeavor. Airbus is giving serious thought to whether it would be more prudent to add incremental changes to existing aircraft.
On the orders front, one strategic deal—a large commitment from China to the A330—remains in limbo. An order for what initially was more than 100 aircraft has been tied up for over a year because it is linked to the creation of an A330 completion center in Tianjin. Complications arose related to the launch of the A330neo: the Chinese side now wants that type included and is concerned that interest in the A330ceo is waning.
Bombardier plans to showcase its struggling CSeries line at the Paris Air Show, to facilitate closing some deals and to stir up new interest. Credit: Bombardier

Airbus is in a tricky position. It had hoped to secure the China deal for the existing version to keep production at relatively high levels in the transition. Without the deal, a deeper production cut than from 10 to six a month, as currently planned, would be likely. Industry sources say an agreement seems imminent.
Boeing is said to have a relatively low-key showing at Paris this year compared with its high-profile presence at the last several air shows. The company is expected to display a787-9 and a 777-300ER, but this will not garner the sort of headlines that dominated the international show circuit over the past two years.
Unlike the 2013 Paris Air Show when Boeing launched the 787-10, or the Dubai Airshow the following November when it announced mammoth orders for the 777X, the company this year will be spotlighting program execution and production ramp-ups. Boeing’s focus will probably be on how it plans to introduce these and other new aircraft-development efforts while simultaneously managing the biggest production increase in its peacetime history.
One key talking point will be progress on the 737 MAX, the first example of which begins assembly in late May. The process officially begins with the loading of the wing spar in Renton, Washington, for 737 line No. 5602; this sets the clock ticking on a well-rehearsed but still anxiously monitored program. The news, which was announced at a Boeing investor conference in Chicago by Commercial Airplanes President Ray Conner on May 12, comes nearly two weeks after CFM began the first flight tests of the Leap-1B, which will power the reengined twin from 2016 onward.
The MAX has netted firm orders for more than 2,700 aircraft even before the first has been built. While this number is commendable by most measures, it still represents only 42% of the market compared to the 58% held by the A320neo. The apparent gap widens even more if options and other commitments are taken into consideration, with the MAX so far garnering more than 3,890 orders and options compared to more than 5,280 for the A320neo. But beyond the sales war, Boeing is working hard to ensure it can introduce the new model smoothly while at the same time increasing production of the 737 to 47 per month in 2017 and 52 per month in 2018.
The introduction of the MAX, the first new product since the 787, is also seen as a major test case for Boeing’s Airplane Development organization. Led by Scott Fancher, senior vice president and general manager, the group was set up in November 2012 to get Boeing’s new product developments back on track in the wake of the troubled 787 program. Besides the MAX, Fancher’s group also has responsibility for the 777X and 787-10 programs.
Further up the capacity scale, Boeing’s focus remains fixed on production and performance improvements for the 777, which are meant to ease the transition to the 777X at the end of the decade. The performance improvements, which will be introduced by the end of 2016, are already having an impact in terms of new 777 sales and will help bridge the gap toward the start of 777X production in 2018-19. Boeing says it requires 50-60 777 orders per year to manage the transition without a significant dip in rate, and as of early May it is off to a good start with 25 signed.
New automated production processes are being simultaneously introduced into the 777 line; these will transition to the 777X. At the same time, extensive construction work on the new 777X Composite Wing Center and an associated fuselage upright build facility in Everett, Washington, is well underway. Both sites are expected to be fully up and running by the end of 2016.
The turnaround in production stability is exemplified by progress on the 787 at the Everett and Charleston, South Carolina, sites. The once-troubled system is producing 10 new 787s per month and is on track to reach 12 per month in 2016, with a further leap to 14 by the end of the decade. Boeing has delivered 43 787s so far this year and 271 overall to 33 customers, and as a measure of its newfound production confidence, the company announced it plans to shut down a temporary surge line in Everett by year-end. The move will free up space for the transition to the 777X, and will see production on the single remaining 787 line at Everett increase to seven per month.
Boeing is also expected to reiterate its determination to see the 747-8 continue in production, even if this means reducing the production rate to as few as one per month. Hit by sluggish sales in both passenger and freight markets, the production rate for the 747-8 will drop to 1.3 per month in September, although Conner says the company has the means to keep the program profitable at even slightly lower rates. Longer term, Boeing sees that the long-awaited revival in the freight market is finally underway and believes that will translate into additional 747-8F business for decades to come.
For Bombardier, the air show will be a far more crucial milestone. The CSeries fleet was grounded during the Farnborough International Airshow 2014, thus the CS100’s appearance in Paris will be the first occasion to present the aircraft to a global audience. With orders well below expectations and manufacturing delays cascading, Bombardier has to have a good showing. “The plane is going to do exactly what we said it will do,” the company’s new president of commercial aircraft, Fred Cromer, says.
On the defense side, Dassault is likely to steal some of the limelight at Paris. One of the aircraft to watch will be the Rafale, basking in recent sales to Asia.
Since March, the French airframe maker notched contracts with Egypt and Qatar for 48 Rafale fighters, and secured the promise of another 36 from India, ending long-standing delays in that procurement effort. The run of orders shifted the company’s burden from how to sell aircraft to how to increase production, should all the orders come through. CEO Eric Trappier recently pledged to increase production if the third contract with India is finalized.
Other potential orders will be keenly watched. The United Arab Emirates continues to weigh where to place a buy, and the stakes for the Eurofighter Typhoon are high.
Pakistan—courting countries that are hoping to replace MiG-21/F-7, Northrop F-5 and Dassault Mirage II/Vs—is bringing its Chengdu JF-17 Thunder multirole fighter to fly at the show. 
Ukraine’s Antonov An-178, a short-range medium airlifter under development, is expected to be at the show. The first flight of this aircraft, which can move more than 18 tons and land on unimproved runways, took place in April.
This year was forecast to be another good one for Airbus’s A400M airlifter, but the May 9 crash of the Turkish MSN23 test aircraft in Seville, Spain, has clouded these high hopes. In space, Airbus will be featuring the new Ariane 6 design, the new Vega and the EDRS system for laser connectivity.
This is a rebound year for the U.S. government, which is stepping up its presence from 2013, when the country’s budget was completely unpredictable due to internal political wrangling, and travel restrictions were firmly in place. This year, more than 250 U.S. companies will be present; 22 U.S. states will have their own pavilions.
Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James is planning to attend. And although Pentagonacquisition chief Frank Kendall is not on the roster, Stephen Welby—who reportedly will take over for Alan Shaffer as deputy assistant secretary of defense for research and engineering—is.
The Defense Department is not slated to fly aircraft at the show—or to display its F-35Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). But a large static display is planned that includes the F-15EStrike Eagle, the F-16 Fighting Falcon, the WC-130J hurricane hunter, the P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, the UH-72 Lakota and the CH-47 Chinook. One surprise addition to the U.S. corral of aircraft is the A-10 Thunderbolt II, a muscular close-air support aircraft that USAF has been trying, unsuccessfully, to retire.
Raytheon, a company that has aggressively targeted foreign military sales, will continue to court international buyers with its missile defense, smart munitions and cybercapabilities. It is hoping to further solidify the network of countries, now 13, that are buying its Patriot missile defense systems.
Along with global sales of fighters, including Lockheed Martin’s mammoth F-35 JSF program, the discussion about the kinds of weapons that will be integrated onto the aircraft is increasing in importance.
To that end, expect to see displays of many types of missiles, including MBDA’s air-to-air Meteor, which is planned to be introduced on the Typhoon, Rafale, Saab Gripen and, at some point, the F-35 JSF.
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) will be touting its space capabilities at the show as well as displaying a series of missiles including Barak 8 air and missile defense system it is developing with India’s Defense Research and Development Organization. Also included are Arrow-2 and -3, anti-ballistic missiles, which IAI is making with Boeing, as well as the Lora surface-to-surface missile.
General Atomics will be promoting its extended-range Maritime Predator, the Avenger, the Predator XP and possibly other UAVs. But a major focus for the company that made the Predator name world-famous will be the first-time promotion of its Advanced Cockpit GCS simulator. At a time when the U.S. Government Accountability Office is calling for better UAV pilot training, the system helps pilots run through potential dangerous situations to improve their decision-making in real-time.
Thales will show off its active, electronically scanned array radar and will be exhibiting its unmanned aerial systems (UAS) prowess, everything from micro to tactical UAVs; Watchkeeper is keenly anticipated. Thales will be talking up high-rate data links, satellite communications and identification friend or foe (IFF) solutions for UAS and for countering UAS. Ground Master systems will be on display, as will nose-to-tail connectivity for aircraft—including IFF, real-time management servicing and time/fuel efficiency—but those are more commercial.
Airbus, Dassault and Finmeccanica will present static displalys of the European MALE UAV solution they are seeking to build, with static displays. IAI, a company with considerable experience in the unmanned realm, will be discussing its cooperation with Airbus on the UAV.
Finmeccanica, however, is expected to scale back its presence this year, as is BAE Systems, although it will be there to support the Typhoon. And Northrop Grumman will again sit out the show. Three years ago, Northrop CEO Wes Bush decided to focus on regional events rather than international gatherings. Gilles Fournier, the Paris Air Show’s managing director, says: “I’m sure they will come back to the show.”
Russia’s presence at the 2013 show was strong, and Sukhoi’s Su-35 flight acrobatics delighted the crowd. After its invasion of Crimea last year, however, Russia sent a very limited delegation to Farnborough, with some officials complaining about lengthy visa approvals. This year, the Russians will not abandon Paris, but the Sukhoi is not expected to be front and center. Defense manufacturers Rosoboronexport, Rostec and Russian Helicopters are slated to attend.
With the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine, many of this year’s vendors are going beyond highlighting large new aircraft or muscular fighters to spotlight technical prowess with missiles, air defense systems, avionics, UAVs and ground control systems.
Israeli officials will be discussing cooperation with Airbus on the European MALE UAV. But even as Israeli defense budgets have declined, IAI is recasting its military technologies into ones that can sell in the commercial world. In particular, it is trying to market its TaxiBot commercial aircraft runway ferrying system in the U.S.