Bankens analyse av flyselskapene: Kvitt dere med pilotene og spar 277 milliarder
Debatten om førerløse biler og busser har pågått en stund, men ekspertene strides om når dette kan bli et vanlig syn på veiene til tross for den raske teknologiutviklingen.
Noen mener førerløse busser snart kan slippes ut i trafikken, mens andre hevder det er langt frem til førerløs trafikk.
Den sveitsiske storbanken UBS tar imidlertid debatten om førerløs trafikk til nye høyder, nemlig bestemt til flytrafikken.
I en analyse hevder UBS at flyselskapene kan spare 35 milliarder dollar per år (rundt 277 milliarder kroner) ved å utvikle teknologi for pilotløse fly, skriver Financial Times. Ifølge banken vil en slik løsning gi både reduserte pilotkostnader, lavere forsikringspremier og lavere drivstoffkostnader.
Storbanken mener også at en slik teknologi vil forbedre sikkerheten.
Og det er ikke sikkert utspillet og analysen er så oppsiktsvekkende som den kan virke ved første øyekast.
A move toward pilotless airplanes represents a $35 billion global opportunity, including $3 billion in savings in the business aviation sector, and could technically be ready for commercial operations by 2025, a new report from Swiss analyst UBS asserts. The report—“Flying solo —how far are we down the path towards pilotless planes?”—delves into the cost savings and other benefits, technical feasibility and challenges facing the use of pilotless airplanes.
Industry is well en route to an automated airplane, the report states, noting, “In the not-too-distant future, we would expect to see a situation where flights are pilotless or the number of pilots shrinks to one, with a remote pilot based on the ground and highly secure ground-to-air communications.”
Technology for remote-control drones exists today and this technology can be adapted for use in helicopters, general aviation, smaller business jets and eventually commercial aviation.
“A number of manufacturers are already involved in making pilotless planes a reality,” the report says, pointing to initiatives under way at Boeing and Airbus, as well as preparations Embraer has been making in anticipation of the possibility of a single-pilot operation by as early as 2020. NASA further is exploring single-pilot concepts under which one pilot remaining in the cockpit works in tandem with a ground operator.
The report also found considerable activity in efforts on the “sky taxi” front, citing a half-dozen examples, including Uber’s work with companies such as Bell Helicopter, Aurora, Mooney, Embraer and Pipistrel to make flying taxis. Uber is in negotiations with Dubai and Dallas-Fort Worth to begin demonstrations in 2020.
“Technically speaking, remotely controlled planes carrying passengers and cargo could appear by 2025,” the report says.
As for benefits, the report cites the potential of saving $35 billion in annual pilot, training, fuel and insurance costs. As for business jets, the report estimates two-thirds are flown by professional pilots, typically with two pilots. Factoring in average salaries, pilotless airplanes could produce up to $2 billion in annual savings in pilot costs, the report speculates. In addition, optimized flight paths that could come with the technologies could produce another $1 billion in fuel savings.
Similarly, in the civil helicopter industry, up to $2.1 billion could be saved “if pilots were removed totally.” While the report looks at the possibility of pilotless operations, UBS sees the transition to single-pilot operations first. In addition, the report cites safety benefits and suggests that improved safety could result in “hundreds of millions” in insurance premium savings.
But the report sees several obstacles, including public perception. More than half (54 percent) of 8,000 people surveyed said they would be unlikely to fly aboard a pilotless airplane. Only 17 percent of those surveyed said they would take such a flight. But it also says this is generational. Some 30 percent of younger respondents (aged 18 to 34) indicated they would be willing to fly aboard a pilotless airplane.
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