Opinion: The Pilot Shortage Myth
The truth about the bogus pilot shortage is out. Increasingly desperate attempts by those who promote this fallacy are inevitably losing ground to the facts. The traveling public, lawmakers and government leaders know the reality: Rock-bottom pay and benefits offered by regional airlines are failing to attract pilots and pushing potential new ones to other professions.
When you look at the numbers, it’s simply not possible to make the case for a pilot shortage. More than 700 Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) pilots are on furlough in North America. In addition, more than 1,000 qualified airline pilots work abroad at carriers such as Emirates, China Eastern Airlines and Etihad Airways, because these companies offer them stronger compensation and benefits than their U.S. counterparts. I know from talking with them that many of the pilots working overseas would prefer to fly for U.S. airlines if offered appropriate pay and benefits, and stable careers.
The U.S. government has found the same to be true. The FAA’s 2014 data show there are more than 137,000 active pilots who are eligible to fly—those younger than 65 and holding Air Transport Pilot (ATP) and first-class medical certificates. Another 105,000 pilots hold instrument ratings and commercial pilot certificates and could potentially obtain an ATP. In addition, about 2,400 qualified pilots leave the U.S. military each year. Finally, the FAA certificated 6,396 new ATPs in 2012, and that number is trending upward each year. In total, there are more than 251,000 pilots who, according to a recent Government Accountability Office report, are competing for 72,000 airline pilot jobs. Does this sound like a shortage?
Why would pilots choose to leave (or never to enter) the airline piloting profession? First-year pilots make between $14,000 and $23,000 at some of the lowest-paying airlines. Is it a surprise to anyone that this level of compensation is not attractive, particularly when many other occupations offer better starting pay and benefits along with promising career paths?
Students who are currently considering professions for which someone with an aviation program diploma might be qualified can find many careers that offer higher starting salaries and better growth prospects than flying for an airline. Even for new graduates who want to work in aviation, other jobs such as test engineer or operations manager can result in a better career track.
Adding to the dismal pay, benefits and career opportunities that are disuading new airline pilots is the fact that becoming one is an expensive and time-intensive undertaking. New pilots invest $150,000 or more to complete their college educations and aviation training with the expectation that they will receive pay and benefits commensurate with the level of training, education and expertise that passengers expect from the professionals who fly them.
Some in the industry continue to use an alleged pilot shortage as an excuse to cancel flights, drop routes and attempt to roll back safety regulations, including the new FAA pilot-fatigue and first officer qualification and training rules.
During the rulemaking process, the FAA invited industry, labor and government to help develop the new regulations. The airlines were fully involved in the process and supported it. In fact, the Regional Airline Association led the effort as chair of the FAA’s First Officer Minimum Qualification Aviation Rulemaking Committee.
These new safety requirements were developed with input from stakeholders, and the carriers had years to prepare for their implementation. We cannot—and will not—allow a fabricated pilot shortage to derail these important safety enhancements. Our industry must maintain the highest possible safety standards.
What’s the solution? We don’t have a pilot shortage today, but we will have one unless our governments put North American airlines on a level playing field internationally so they can compete successfully in the global arena. In addition, we must provide our professional pilots with pay and benefits that are commensurate with the training, experience and education that the flying public demands. The result will add up to a competitive North American airline industry and benefit all who depend on air transportation.
Capt. Lee Moak - ALPA Intl. President
When you look at the numbers, it’s simply not possible to make the case for a pilot shortage. More than 700 Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) pilots are on furlough in North America. In addition, more than 1,000 qualified airline pilots work abroad at carriers such as Emirates, China Eastern Airlines and Etihad Airways, because these companies offer them stronger compensation and benefits than their U.S. counterparts. I know from talking with them that many of the pilots working overseas would prefer to fly for U.S. airlines if offered appropriate pay and benefits, and stable careers.
The U.S. government has found the same to be true. The FAA’s 2014 data show there are more than 137,000 active pilots who are eligible to fly—those younger than 65 and holding Air Transport Pilot (ATP) and first-class medical certificates. Another 105,000 pilots hold instrument ratings and commercial pilot certificates and could potentially obtain an ATP. In addition, about 2,400 qualified pilots leave the U.S. military each year. Finally, the FAA certificated 6,396 new ATPs in 2012, and that number is trending upward each year. In total, there are more than 251,000 pilots who, according to a recent Government Accountability Office report, are competing for 72,000 airline pilot jobs. Does this sound like a shortage?
Why would pilots choose to leave (or never to enter) the airline piloting profession? First-year pilots make between $14,000 and $23,000 at some of the lowest-paying airlines. Is it a surprise to anyone that this level of compensation is not attractive, particularly when many other occupations offer better starting pay and benefits along with promising career paths?
Students who are currently considering professions for which someone with an aviation program diploma might be qualified can find many careers that offer higher starting salaries and better growth prospects than flying for an airline. Even for new graduates who want to work in aviation, other jobs such as test engineer or operations manager can result in a better career track.
Adding to the dismal pay, benefits and career opportunities that are disuading new airline pilots is the fact that becoming one is an expensive and time-intensive undertaking. New pilots invest $150,000 or more to complete their college educations and aviation training with the expectation that they will receive pay and benefits commensurate with the level of training, education and expertise that passengers expect from the professionals who fly them.
Some in the industry continue to use an alleged pilot shortage as an excuse to cancel flights, drop routes and attempt to roll back safety regulations, including the new FAA pilot-fatigue and first officer qualification and training rules.
During the rulemaking process, the FAA invited industry, labor and government to help develop the new regulations. The airlines were fully involved in the process and supported it. In fact, the Regional Airline Association led the effort as chair of the FAA’s First Officer Minimum Qualification Aviation Rulemaking Committee.
These new safety requirements were developed with input from stakeholders, and the carriers had years to prepare for their implementation. We cannot—and will not—allow a fabricated pilot shortage to derail these important safety enhancements. Our industry must maintain the highest possible safety standards.
What’s the solution? We don’t have a pilot shortage today, but we will have one unless our governments put North American airlines on a level playing field internationally so they can compete successfully in the global arena. In addition, we must provide our professional pilots with pay and benefits that are commensurate with the training, experience and education that the flying public demands. The result will add up to a competitive North American airline industry and benefit all who depend on air transportation.
Capt. Lee Moak - ALPA Intl. President
Opinion: How Unions Contribute To Pilot Shortage
Yes, There Is A Pilot Shortage
No one should have been surprised to read on this Viewpoint page that the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) thinks there is no pilot shortage in the U.S. (AW&ST Sept. 15, p. 58). Instead, ALPA President Lee Moak blames a pay shortage, particularly at the regional airline level. While Moak tells many half-truths with regard to numbers, he forgets to mention a truism: It is his union and other labor organizations that collectively bargain for the pay and work rules at the nation’s regional airlines.
ALPA talks about creating a level playing field without referencing the union’s own role in determining pay and benefits at the regional level. A race to the bottom has been a part of organized labor’s DNA for decades, in part because low labor rates at regional carriers cross-subsidize the higher rates paid at the mainline airlines.
Pilot union interests and small-community air service issues are often in conflict. Now the truth is out: The economics of the regional market are distorted, influenced by middlemen like ALPA and unresponsive to markets dependent on regional airline service.
The news media are just beginning to focus on the pending pilot shortage—a story that will play out at least through 2022 unless something is done. Regional air service in the U.S. could die a death of a thousand frequency cuts and isolate communities now dependent on this sector for access to the national air transportation grid.
At more than 265 mainland U.S. airports today, more than 90% of departures are by regional operators. Regional airlines provide more than half of the departures in 35 states and account for 22% of the nation’s flights to airports large and small.
Three legislative and regulatory changes have had a profound impact on pilot staffing. In 2007, Congress passed a law that moved the mandatory retirement age for commercial pilots to 65 from 60. Then, in response to the 2009 Colgan Air crash near Buffalo, New York, the FAA and Congress increased the flying time required for an Air Transport Pilot (ATP) rating to 1,500 hr. from 250. Finally, this year, new crew rest regulations went into effect, essentially forcing airlines to hire additional people to do the same level of flying. Regional airlines are now struggling to fill classes of pilots that meet the new requirements at the same time qualified pilots are moving to network carriers.
The Age 65 Rule by itself does not impact the number of pilots needed per se. However, a substantial number of pilots are facing mandatory retirement at the network carriers, and this will have a major impact on the number of replacement pilots needed going forward. Between 2015 and 2022, more than 14,000 pilots are expected to retire from the “Big Four” U.S. airlines alone. That many will need to be hired just to retain today’s level of flying at American, Delta, United and Southwest. This does not take into account any growth or count the needs of other U.S. carriers. Assuming today’s regional pool of pilots will be the primary source of labor, demand will easily surpass the 18,000 flying for regionals today.
At the regional level, pilot availability is akin to a Ponzi scheme. Today, an airline can trim enough frequencies to fly some or most of its network, but at some point those airlines will have little choice but to exit their least profitable markets. And only when vacated markets reach a critical mass will legislators and the regulators take note that the nation’s route map architecture is forever altered.
At risk are millions, if not billions, of dollars in economic impact on those communities that rely on regional service to support their economies. Perhaps ALPA needs to acknowledge its role in the problem and be part of the solution by advocating a more equitable distribution of pay across its member base.
This is an industry problem that will require broad stakeholder involvement—and action—in addition to ALPA revisiting its methods on pay distribution across its membership. This is an issue that could result in lost air service for some communities as an unintended consequence of ill-advised legislation. The FAA and Congress need to revisit the legislation mandating 1,500 hr. for an ATP license. And a push from the Transportation Department, which historically has championed small-community air service, would not hurt, either.
Swelbar is executive vice president at InterVistas Consulting in Washington.
A version of this article appears in the October 6 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology.
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