T-X update - AW&ST

U.S. Air Force T-X Competition Narrows As Price Takes Precedence

Feb 3, 2017

James Drew | Aviation Week & Space Technology

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  The Air Force’s desire for a high-performance, low-risk training aircraft produced at the lowest possible price appears to be reshaping the T-X competition in surprising ways. The evaluation criteria released along with the request for proposals on Dec. 30 does away with an assessment of past performance, instead focusing on technical performance and risk weighted equally with price. “All evaluation factors other than price, when combined, are approximately equal to price,” the document states.

  The Air Force has set an “affordability gate” of $16.3 billion for 350 aircraft to replace the vintage T-38 Talon, and an associated “live, virtual and constructive” ground-based training enterprise. Companies that cannot stay within that price point or meet the threshold performance parameters such as 6.5g maneuvering or 20-deg. angle of attack (AOA) are not eligible for the competition, and any performance above those levels subtracts lump sums from each offeror’s “value adjusted total evaluated price.”

  These factors could be behind Northrop Grumman and Raytheon’s surprise exits from the competition after years of engagement on T-X. After some internal reflection, Northrop does not see itself becoming a low-cost utility aircraft manufacturer, despite its T-38 Talon heritage, instead focusing on “value-added” warplanes such as the B-21 Raider, and competing for the high-profile Air Force Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System, Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent and Navy MQ-25 Stingray programs. 

  Raytheon had partnered with Leonardo to offer the M-346 Master (T-100), whose performance was “on the line,” but stumbled over the unit cost and split up. Boeing and Lockheed Martin have confirmed their entry, offering the BTX and T-50A trainers, respectively. It is still too early to discount Sierra Nevada Corp. and Textron Aviation potentially offering economical trainers.

  
  

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The Northrop T-38 Talon’s longevity is a testament to late-1950s engineering and the U.S. Air Force’s aircraft depots, but after 56 years of active service, it is time to move on. The service needs a modern trainer to prepare pilots to fly digital-age fighters and bombers, and after seven years of preparation, it is time for the T-X program to deliver. On Dec. 30, a request for proposals seeking a 350-aircraft training enterprise was released, but what looked like a crowded playing field is now quickly evaporating. The focus on high performance at the lowest cost has seen the five or six potential competitors whittled down to two confirmed bidders and two wild cards. So, who has the inside track for this $16.3 billion opportunity?