Jet Airways Chairman Naresh Goyal seemed very touched. He hugged Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Kevin McAllister several times as they stood in the manufacturer’s chalet at the Farnborough Airshow. Goyal seemingly had every reason to be emotional. After all, he had just signed a new order for 75 Boeing 737 MAXs, a big deal even by the standards of the fast-growing Indian aviation market—and making a big splash at the show.
The reality, though, was less spectacular, and the emotions appeared a bit awkward: The order was not new, and it is unclear if it really was, strictly speaking, an order by the airline at all.
Boeing said it had been listed earlier as an order by an unannounced customer. The air show was just a better stage to reveal the operator’s identity. Jet Airways first ordered 75 MAXs in 2013, but 25 of these are now arranged through lessors. It then announced another firm order for 75 aircraft on April 4, and Boeing listed a Jet Airways commitment for June 1. Boeing’s official number of direct Jet Airways MAX orders is 125. But the total commitment is, as Boeing confirmed, 225.
Initial reports of another deal were published in June, well ahead of the air show. Boeing has not disclosed the details of the remaining Jet tranche, “as they are between Boeing and the customer.” But it showed a June 1 Boeing Capital Corp. order for 75 MAXs that apparently replaced one by an unannounced customer.
Confusing? Absolutely. And that is before taking into account the question of whether Jet Airways will actually take all of the aircraft, given that reports of its financial troubles fill India’s press every day.
Boeing was not alone in playing these games. Airbus announced 93 firm orders at Farnborough in its end-of-show wrap-up, but when it released the official sales figures for July in early August, there were only eight firm orders left—for A350-900s by an undisclosed customer. Airbus later said the amount of paperwork left to finalize all the deals was simply too much to handle before the end of July. Clearly those deals then should not have been called “firm orders” at Farnborough.
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Credit: Boeing Concept

Despite what Airbus may say, the delay is not just about paperwork: The board of AirAsiaX has yet to confirm the order for 34 more A330neos. That air shows are about hype is nothing new, but Boeing and Airbus may be turning the “show” into a farce. The two manufacturers are, more than ever, using the opportunity to portray their civil aircraft units as booming businesses. The game is to tally more deals at the end of the show than the competitor and claim to prevail. There are many nuances, among them conversions of unidentified firm orders and the very popular description “commitments”—which leaves just about anything open to interpretation. It harms credibility if so many questions remain about whether an order is actually new or firm.
What really counts is additional firm orders that are recorded in the backlog. Memoranda of understanding and letters of intent are nice to have as an indication of where market interest lies and as an interim step ahead of an order signing—but they are not the real deal. Even many firm orders end up being changed years later, but that is another story.
The lax handling of order announcements at air shows is not only misleading—in some cases perhaps even deserving regulatory scrutiny—but also unnecessary from the manufacturers’ point of view. 
No one doubts Boeing and Airbus are booming businesses. Their backlogs are so large that the least worry the companies have is getting more orders, and this has been the case for a number of years. The duopoly that appeared to be slightly in doubt a few years ago is more solid than ever. Airbus acquired control of the Bombardier C Series, Boeing is about to take over Embraer’s commercial aircraft business, and no one believes the Comac C919or United Aircraft Corp. MC-21 will become serious threats.
To judge the true state of the various businesses, it is probably wiser to look at orders the manufacturers hoped for but did not get, rather than those proclaimed at air shows. For instance, Boeing did not have any additional commitments to share for the 777X. Given the program’s reliance on the big three Gulf carriers and the questions some of them face, a little more risk-spreading through additional orders elsewhere would be welcome. Embraer announced many orders for E-Jets, but not so many for E2s, the backlog for which is not strong yet.
Airbus has programs like that, too. The A350-1000 could well use more demand. So could the A330neo, in spite of the AirAsiaX deal. And of course, there is the never-ending A380story. Remember the 2017 Dubai Airshow, when Airbus executives filled a conference room expecting Emirates to sign a deal for the A380 that would have saved the program? Instead, they had to witness an order for the Boeing 787-10. A perfect example of how sometimes the orders not made are more relevant. To close the loop, Emirates finally bought more A380s two months later. And no, not at an air show.