Year-to-date cancellations of large commercial aircraft orders are totaling 441 units through November, according to financial analysts, a worrying but not catastrophic increase over the 303 in 2018.
“We view this spike in the number as slightly concerning but there might be an added relief through opening up [production] slots given the tight supply situation,” Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu and her team said in a Dec. 2 report. “We continue to monitor for further signs of stress, but the market looks good right now.”
The analysts believe recent airline troubles, combined with aircraft technical issues, have led to the spike in cancellations as a percentage of orders. By airline, Jet Airways has cancelled 135, then Boeing Capital at 75, Etihad Airways at 42, Republic Airways at 40, Germania at 25, Amedeo at 20, and Air Lease at 18. By type, the Boeing 737 MAX showed the most cancellations at 229, then Airbus A320 and A220 both at 45 each, followed by A350 at 44, Boeing 787 at 35, Airbus A380 at 31, A319 at eight and one A321.
Retirements are expected to be about 2.5% of the fleet in 2019, the Jefferies team said. “This is partially driven by the number of jetliners built two decades ago and by the fact that most carriers in the emerging markets buy new,” they reported.
The per cent of the fleet that is parked, meanwhile, continues to run at an elevated level, especially compared with the fact that it has dropped almost every year since 2001. As of Nov. 27, 7.6% of the fleet is parked, according to Jefferies, including 993 in-production jets and 675 out-of-production jets. The team’s estimate of the parked fleet indicated there is a shortage of about 400 aircraft. The trend is exacerbated by the current parked MAX fleet, which totals 386 aircraft.