Uidentifisert fly fotografert over Philippinene - The War Zone

 

Et fly som likner veldig ble fotografert over California i fjor. Bildet ble gjengitt i AW&ST. Her sakset fra Twitter:

Steve Trimble

@TheDEWLine

A mystery UAV — possibly RQ-180 — flew a racetrack pattern in daylight over Edwards in mid-October. Also, @AvWeekGuy reports an RQ-180 nickname is Shikaka, the great white bat from Ace Ventura 2. Story:

Possible Photo Of Highly Secret RQ-180 Aircraft Surfaces Online | Aviation Week Network

At the time the picture was taken in daylight hours, the unknown aircraft was flying above California City in a racetrack pattern at an estimated altitude of 20,000 ft. 

aviationweek.com

10:43 PM · Nov 1, 2020 from Alexandria, VA

(Red.)

The Philippines sits between the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, two contentious and highly surveilled bodies of water that regularly see large amounts of military activity, especially Chinese and American. All types of military aircraft constantly frequent the skies above both seas, from bombers to drones, but on September 2nd, at around 6:15 AM local time, landscape photographer Michael Fugnit captured something very unique in his lens—what appears to be a stealthy flying wing aircraft with a diamond-shaped fuselage and slender wings, a centralized exhaust, potentially featuring twin engines, and a ventral fuselage bulge. 

Fugnit tells The War Zone that he was up early in Santa Magdalena to catch the perfect sunrise when he noticed an aircraft overhead moving along at a good clip. The single image he took showed something that is unlike any normal commercial or military aircraft that usually criss-cross the skies over the region on a daily basis. 

 

MICHAEL FUGNIT

The original image Michael provided. He states that it was taken by a "Fujifilmxt2 +50-200mm" which, combined with high-altitude and the early morning lighting, would explain the small resolution and grainy nature of the image.

We must state that we cannot authenticate the image at this time, although we gave it a cursory examination in photoshop and nothing major stood out. We do not have any reason to believe the photographer fabricated it, either, although it is only prudent to underscore that the factual status of the photograph could change. We will continue to examine the image using various tools and are reaching out to other photo experts to give us their opinion.

 

GOOGLE MAPS

The location where the image was taken, smack-dab in the middle of two of the most strategic and tense bodies of water in the Pacific Theater. 

At first glance, the aircraft depicted looks very much like the one seen in the supposed sighting of the so-called RQ-180 Sentinel high-altitude, long-endurance, very low-observable drone from last November. The RQ-180, which you can read our in-depth take on in this past special feature, is thought to be in very limited operation at this time as it continues with its clandestine development. Flying the aircraft in this area of the world would make sense because it is precisely the type of environment it was designed to operate in, but it could also just be transiting to another location, including back to the United States. 

Also the timing, at sunrise, crossing the last major inhabited area before heading out into the desolate Pacific would make sense. The aircraft is thought to fly out of Area 51 in Nevada and Edwards Air Force Base in California, on extremely long-duration missions, but the isolated island of Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean, would be another operating location as it expands its operations. Special facilities there can support the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and could likely be used to support the RQ-180, as well. The locale is also known for its use to support clandestine aircraft activities. Andersen Air Force Base on Guam is another potential operating location, but that is likely too high-profile for this stage of the aircraft's development. 

HANGAR B PRODUCTIONS

Our notional illustration of what the RQ-180 could look like based on publicly disclosed information about very similar concepts from Northrop Grumman that seem to have predated the program. 

While the aircraft appears to be a good match to what we think the U.S. stealth HALE (high altitude, long endurance) drone known as the RQ-180 looks like, and the timing and location do make some sense, it is not the only possibility. China has a large number of stealthy flying-wing aircraft programs ongoing of all different sizes. Beyond its H-20 stealth bomber program, many stealth drone programs are publically underway, including a concept that is broadly similar to the RQ-180, known as the CH-7 Rainbow. China's Star Shadow, which has been in development for years, may also have some similarities to the shape we see in the image. Once again, that is one of a number of potential Chinese stealth drones, some of which we know have been in flight testing for years, and there are others that surely remain cloaked in secrecy, that could potentially account for this sighting. 

 

CHINESE INTERNET

A mockup of the CASC CH-7 UCAV at the 2018 Zhuhai airshow.

Because we do not know the approximate altitude the aircraft was flying at, it is possible that this may not have been a strategic platform, it could be something a bit smaller that flies for long periods of time at medium altitudes, instead. Regardless, the appearance of Chinese stealthy drones will become commonplace in the region in the years to come, but this could have been a clandestine operation of one of these systems that has made it at least into an operational testing state. Collecting critical intelligence from a penetrating reconnaissance platform on the countries China has a standing dispute over the South China Sea with does makes sense. 

As for the possibility that this was China's H-20 stealth bomber, the chances of that are very low. The aircraft has not been unveiled and is not even thought to be in major flight testing, let alone flying missions over foreign countries. What about a B-2 Spirit transiting the area? The image shows discreet features that are not indicative of the B-2. If the image is legitimate, the chances of it being a B-2 with multiple illusions occurring to make its planform and wing design look very different are quite remote. Also, at least at the time of publishing, radio interceptors and plane trackers have not noticed any B-2s moving through the region. The RQ-170 is another candidate. We know it has been adapted to work in the maritime domain and it has spent time in Asia, but that would be an odd place for it to be and the wings don't look right. Still, it is a possibility to consider.

With that being said, there are two other wrinkles in this story. First, the U.S., U.K., India, Japan, and Australia just held one of their biggest joint exercises ever in the Phillippine Sea. This would have been of the very utmost interest to China. While those activities wrapped up officially by the end of August, assets were likely still in the region when this aircraft was sighted. The same could be true for any Chinese warships movements in the same area, which would be of very high U.S. interest.