Just Pick A Fighter And Start Training Ukrainian Pilots On It As Soon As Possible
Ukraine's pilots should have been in training yesterday and there are plenty of second-hand fighter options to accommodate their needs.
TYLER ROGOWAY View Tyler Rogoway's Articles
Oddly enough, one of the
most covered aspects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the drama surrounding the possible emergency transfer of
hand-me-down Soviet-era MiGs from NATO members to Ukraine. This was especially
true of Poland's roughly 28 MiG-29s, a deal that spectacularly fell apart on the world stage nearly
as quickly as it was conceived. While Ukraine needs familiar ground-based air defenses the most right
now, in the meantime, the U.S. and NATO have to begin getting Ukrainian pilots
into training on a western fighter type.
Regardless of the outlandish claims that some are
putting forward, including the Ukrainian Air Force itself, this process will
take many months or even, in some
cases, years to complete. There is no getting around that
reality. The same can be said for preparing Ukraine to actually operate and
sustain the western fighters once they are in-country. But starting now will
make a huge statement to Russia and waiting any longer will only needlessly
delay the inevitable further. This is simply a luxury the U.S. and its NATO
partners no longer have. They need to move decisively now.
According to our information, Ukraine has no
shortage of fighter pilots, but they do have a shortage of fighters for their
pilots to fly. By pulling say six to 12 experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots
and another six to 12 that are just beginning training, two pipelines can be
established to produce aviators qualified to employ the fighter Ukraine will
end up with—one near-term and one longer-term.
A Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29UB taxiing into
parking.
While the F-16 is often
the default answer when it comes to the question of what to equip the Ukrainian
Air Force with, it is not the only solution. Older F-16 airframes that can
still have their lives extended are becoming a bit more of a prized second-hand
item. The USAF's QF-16 full-scale aerial target (FSAT) program is
consuming these aircraft at a considerable rate and demand by other air forces
for second-hand Vipers is only increasing. Then there is the private adversary
support marketplace, which is snapping up F-16 airframes for advanced aggressor roles, as well.
Even the Navy is eyeing used F-16s to
backstop its own future aggressor needs.
The QF-16 FSAT program is one major consumer of
surplus F-16 airframes.
The USAF is now looking to retire more of its
older Block 30/32 Vipers that could potentially be recapitalized and sent to a
foreign user and the F-35's arrival in some foreign air arms will send small
batches of second-hand F-16s onto the market. But the point is that the U.S.
and even the international F-16 surplus is not a bottomless pit like some think
it is.
To start, Ukraine would not need many airframes as
it will only have a limited number of pilots to fly them, but that would change
over time. What the F-16 has going for it is its wide commonality throughout
Europe and around the world with a very healthy sustainment and training
infrastructure to support them for years to come. Single engine economy,
multi-role capability, easy upgradeability, and great all-around performance
round out what has historically been a massively capable and relatively
efficient package.
The F-16 benefits from a massive user base and
upgrade program that has been ongoing throughout its service life.
Another option would be
supplying Ukraine with F/A-18A/B/C/D Legacy Hornets. There are U.S. stocks of
these aircraft in limited supply, with the USMC retaining and upgrading just under 100 of the
type to serve another decade. Other stocks from foreign countries are or will
soon come available, as well.
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POLAND'S "HIGH RISK" PLAN
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TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
One off-the-shelf solution
would be to acquire Kuwait's 33 F/A-18C/Ds, which are known to be in pristine
condition, and retain them for Ukraine. Other countries are eyeing these jets, so the U.S.
would have to act fast, but considering the strategic imperative, this would be
a near-perfect solution for Ukraine.
A Kuwaiti F/A-18C.
The U.S. Hornet training pipeline will be
operating for another decade at least and the type offers a very sturdy
airframe that is well suited for less improved Ukrainian airfields, as well as
twin-engine reliability. It also features a probe for aerial refueling, which
would provide a more attainable avenue to organic aerial refueling capabilities
than say an F-16. The AN/APG-73 is a good radar and the type is known for its
fantastic multi-role capabilities.
Spanish F/A-18s drink from a KC-130.
The F-15C/D would be an incredibly powerful,
albeit highly ambitious option. The fact that it is fully optimized for
air-to-air combat, with only a latent secondary air-to-ground capability, makes
the type largely defensive in nature, which could calm some concerns.
The F-15 remains one of
the world's most capable air-to-air fighters and the USAF is retiring the type
for the new F-15EX. In fact, the USAF is
looking to speed up this process as part of its 2023 budget request.
This means roughly 220 of these
aircraft will become surplus.
F-15C high over the Pacific.
Most of the fleet is
equipped with a new large cockpit display and the hugely powerful AN/APG-63V3 AESA radar, which would give Ukraine
absolutely massive capabilities in the air-to-air realm, including a robust
ability to intercept low-flying and stealthy cruise missiles and to act as
something akin to a quasi-AWACS. The other aircraft mentioned in this story are
not anywhere near as capable in this regard without a multi-million dollar
radar upgrade.
Overall the Eagle would
act as a major deterrent against Russian aerial aggression, but it would come
at a price. These aircraft are expensive to operate and are in need of a major structural upgrade in the
coming decade. But that may be a bargain for Ukraine considering what they are
getting, which is basically the most capable counter-air fighter feasibly
within their reach. Also, with so many of the aircraft retiring, even if
Ukraine were to operate 75 of these jets, much of the spare parts supply chain
would be decent for years to come.
The Eagle is still incredibly capable, but it
comes at a high cost in maintenance man-hours and future airframe ugprades.
One issue is the schoolhouse availability. The
F-15C/D training unit at Kingsley Field in Klamath Falls, Oregon, will be
transitioning to the F-15EX. That schoolhouse would have to retain the F-15C/D
syllabus, at least for some time, if Ukraine were to receive the Eagles.
Otherwise, Ukraine's pilots would need to go through advanced training in
Japan, Israel, or even, at least to a certain degree, Saudi Arabia, all of which
still operate the C/D model.
One issue could be the radar itself. It's so good
that it may be deemed too advanced to risk in Ukraine. If that is the case,
remaining non-AESA-equipped models could be transferred and others could be
retrofitted with older mechanically scanned arrays, although this could prove
to be problematic.
Sjekk video her: https://tinyurl.com/7u4mp5zf
Another option, and
possibly the best of all, would be Sweden's surplus JAS-39C/D Gripen multi-role fighters.
These light-to-medium weight fighters are built with great efficiency and
reliability in mind. They were designed to be turned around in the bush by tiny
teams of mainly conscripted groundcrew and flown from roadways and rough fields
during wartime. Distributed operations under very harsh sustained wartime
conditions, especially in the cold, are literally what the design is all
about.
Their single F404-derivative engine (license-built
by Volvo) drinks comparatively small amounts of fuel compared to the other
options and the type has a wide array of available armory from multiple
nations. It has all-around good performance, modern radar and avionics, and is
small in size, making it hard to spot visually.
The Gripen really is well suited for the current
combat doctrine Ukraine is using in Ukraine today, although the fact that it is
a Swedish design makes it a bit harder for the U.S. and NATO to supply and
support it. Still, other NATO members operate the type. There is also the
question of how many Sweden will be able to give up at this time.
A Swedish JAS-39 Gripen returns to the play areas
of the Arctic Challenge exercise Sept. 24, 2013, over Norway, after taking on
fuel from a U.S. Air Force KC-135R Stratotanker. Th
Finally, all these types can carry an advanced
targeting pod that can be used for air-to-ground ordnance delivery and
non-traditional reconnaissance. But most importantly, they can also be used for
long-range air-to-air visual identification of aircraft. This is very important
for the air sovereignty mission and works as a key capability when it comes to
making sure innocent lives are not lost in an accidental shootdown of a
civilian or friendly aircraft.
Of course, there are other types that could
fulfill the mission, as well, such as French options — the Mirage 2000 for
instance — but these are the types that seem to make the most sense and are
available now. The main thing here is to just make a decision and get pilots
into training ASAP so that a conceivable operational date doesn't keep getting
pushed back.
Ukraine's Su-27s are their most capable fighters,
but they are older than they look and sustaining the type over the long term is
questionable. Getting more of them in significant quantities also looks to be a
non starter, regardless.
In the meantime, sure, more MiG-29s or Su-27s
would help, but we must start thinking of the situation in Ukraine as not just
a limited conflict, but a geopolitical event that will have repercussions for
years to come. The more efforts to enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities we get
in motion now, the better.
Also, it's worth noting
that prior to Russia's invasion, Ukraine was readily capable of performing deep
maintenance and significant upgrade work on its Soviet-era fighter jets thanks
to the expansive defense industrial infrastructure that it inherited when it
gained independence in 1991 and that it invested into over the subsequent
years. However, Russian forces have now been heavily targeting the Ukrainian
defense industry, especially aviation-related facilities, including a missile
strike that flattened a key hangar at the
Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant last week.
A lineup of Ukrainian MiG-29s.
"They have
practically destroyed our defense industry," Oleksiy Arestovych, an
advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said today. So, authorities in
Ukraine will need to build back these capabilities, possibly from the ground up
in many cases, after this conflict is over. When it comes to the country's
fighter jet fleets, this would provide an optimal moment of sorts to shift to a
new platform and craft this new infrastructure around it.
With all that being said, agreeing to equip
Ukraine with a 4th generation fighter type now and getting pilots in the
pipeline to fly them as soon as possible would be a much-needed first step and it
would send a crisp message to Russia that Ukraine will be supported with
high-end military aviation hardware in order to defend itself over the long
term.
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