Training before game day: Takeaways from China’s most recent
encirclement of Taiwan
Geopolitics
& Policy
17
October 2024
|
By: Robert Dougherty
Joint Sword-2024B drill. Photo: PRC
Ministry of National Defense
The dust has quickly settled on one
of the People’s Republic of China’s largest and most complex joint military
drills, Joint Sword-2024B, in the Taiwan Strait.
People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
personnel, ships, aircraft and rocket force equipment were deployed to the
north, south and east of Taiwan during the military exercise earlier this month
on 14 October.
Importantly, the People’s Republic
of China (PRC) exercise reportedly broke a previous 2023 record set for the
most aircraft (153) detected around Taiwan in a 25-hour period, according to
the Republic of China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).
The MND also indicated that 111 of
the 153 aircraft crossed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone during
the unusually short one-day exercise.
The encirclement also coincided with
a speech from Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, encouraging the nation’s
sovereignty.
“The drill ... serves as a stern
warning to the separatist acts of ’Taiwan independence’ forces,” PLA Eastern
Theater Command spokesperson Senior Captain Li Xi said.
“It is a legitimate and necessary
operation for safeguarding national sovereignty and national unity.”
The action was conducted via the PLA
Eastern Theater Command’s Liaoning aircraft carrier task group, with vessels
and aircraft approaching Taiwan from different directions. This was supported
by sea and air personnel conducting a simulated blockade of ports and key
areas, as well as sea-air combat-readiness patrols and simulated assaults on
maritime and ground targets.
Pentagon Press Secretary Major
General Pat Ryder, speaking on 14 October, said the US closely monitored the
People’s Liberation Army exercise.
“This military pressure operation is
irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilising. As the White House noted
last week, it is a long-standing tradition for Taiwan’s president to deliver
remarks on 10/10,” he said.
“It is a routine, domestic-focused
address that has historically prompted little response from the PRC. Still, the
PRC has chosen this opportunity to take provocative, military action.
“Deterrence remains strong in the
Indo-Pacific, and the department remains confident in its current force posture
and operations in the region.
“The entire world has a stake in
peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and we continue to see a growing
community of countries committed to peace and stability across the Taiwan
Strait.
“We will continue to work with
allies and partners to advance our shared vision for a free and open
Indo-Pacific, despite the PRC’s destabilising behaviour. The United States
remains committed to its long-standing one-China policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six
Assurances.”
As a military strategy, this latest
simulated blockade of the island by PRC forces is a critical preparation for
any future realised action to prevent or hinder international intervention or
assistance, as well as control export and import of military equipment, food,
general trade and resources.
To have any hope of achieving a
military action of this magnitude, such as the taking of Taiwan, the PRC main
branches of the Air Force, Navy and Army would likely have to show seamless
cohesion and act at significant speed to deter the intervention of Western
allies.
In this regard I’m reminded of an
insightful, yet cheesy quote from American professional basketball player
Michael Jordan.
“You don’t show up on game day and
expect to be great. Greatness happens in practice. You have to expect things of
yourself before you can do them,” he said.
In short, we can expect to see more
drills like this one. As the world has seen earlier this month, the different
branches of the PRC military machine must train for game day, they must be
drilled again and again on this exact situation to operate naturally and
smoothly at speed.
Of additional note during the most
recent exercise, four formations from the Chinese Coast Guard were also deployed
to the exercise to carry out law enforcement patrols surrounding Taiwan.
These units were reportedly able to
surround the Taiwanese-controlled Matsu Islands along the south-eastern coast
of the PRC and operate on both sides of Taiwan’s mainland waters to support
their main branches.
Final
thoughts
This latest PLA deployment occurred
quickly within 24 hours and highlighted that PRC military units were reportedly
able to quickly close the distance to within 39 kilometres of Taiwan during the
exercise. In addition, they were also reportedly able to set up outside the
major Taiwanese ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung.
The precision and speed of this
latest exercise could encourage the theory that the PRC is potentially more
prepared and ready to enact a real blockade of Taiwan than previously thought.
I’d wager that if Western experts
are telling us that the PRC will only be ready to move on the island during a
predestined date in 2027, then the Chinese military will be making their utmost
efforts to deliver more exercises like Joint Sword-2024B and push to be ready
sooner.
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