UAM - Urban Air Mobility - Airbus` ser på saken - AW&ST

Airbus Anticipates Commercial Urban Air Service By 2025 Graham Warwick We should stop dreaming, and start making, otherwise this will never happen, says Eduardo Dominguez Puerta, head of unmanned air mobility (UAM) at Airbus. Technology is available, regulations are taking shape and the supply chain is ready for the OEMs to begin product development, he says. For the launch of commercial service, “2025 seems reasonable,” Dominguez Puerta told the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics’ SciTech conference in San Diego on Jan. 9. “I can only be optimistic, being part of the industry, but if not 2025, then a couple of years after.” Dominguez Puerta heads a unit Airbus created in June 2018 to bring together its various initiatives in urban air mobility, ranging from the Vahana and CityAirbus electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicle demonstrators, to the Skyways drone delivery system and Voom helicopter booking service. Pave way with on-demand helicopters Commercial eVTOL service forecast by 2025-28 Large-scale market expected by the middle or end of the 2030s In his SciTech keynote speech, Dominguez Puerta explained Airbus’ interest in UAM and outlined its vision for the market, which he expects to begin as a premium service linking the airport to the city center, then become democratized as costs come down and routes expand to the suburbs and beyond. “My view is that this is a $50 billion accumulated market to 2032,” he says. “Out of that, less than half is going to go to the vehicles, which reinforces the idea that companies such as Airbus should not just focus on the vehicles. We should look at the rest of the value chain.”

Single-seat Vahana tiltwing eVTOL (foreground) is in flight testing in Oregon. Credit: Airbus A3

Two key factors are behind Airbus’ interest in UAM: urbanization and disruption. The growth of megacities around the world is not going to stop, he says. Many lack the transportation infrastructure to support that growth and, to build what is needed, will have to choose between road, rail and air. “This is a problem for aviation, because for the first time we are competing not with other manufacturers, but also with other means of transportation,” says Dominguez Puerta. “I think we will see places in the world where they will jump straight to urban air mobility as part of the solution.” As Airbus’ Voom service is proving in Sao Paulo and Mexico City, helicopters can enable urban air mobility, but their high operating cost limits their potential. EVTOLs promise to be quieter and cheaper to operate and their potential to replace helicopters could risk disrupting Airbus’ rotorcraft business. And the threat may come from nontraditional players. Dominguez Puerta points to the computing industry. “In the 1980s, software companies started to pop up, getting between the hardware manufacturers and the consumers. Now, 30 years later, those software guys are the ones making the hardware.” He points to Uber and other digital ride-hailing platforms. “We as automotive, aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are the hardware guys. People like [Uber] are software companies. If we do nothing, these companies will start building hardware soon.” Dominguez Puerta believes it is easier for manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing to change their position in the value chain and provide services than it will be for the technology companies to build a new automotive or aeronautical industry. “But this is not our turf,” he acknowledges. “We are B2B [business-to-business]. We are not B2C [business-to-consumer]. I think that needs a change in our mindset.”

Voom helicopter on-demand booking service is paving the way for urban air taxis. Credit: Airbus A3

UAM can complement traditional modes of transportation and provide additional capacity. “Urban air mobility is one part of the solution,” he says. “If we strive to capture 3-5% of the passengers that transit through megacity airports, that closes the business case. And that does not take two decades.” Airbus sees urban mobility requirements having an impact on commercial aviation as megacities develop new centers of economic activity as they grow. And, as cities become less monocentric and more polycentric, there will be a need for both short-range all-electric and longer-range hybrid-electric vehicles. “We are going to see solutions for city-center transport, around a 35-km (20-mi.) mission, and an extended range of 150 mi. that starts touching the outside areas of cities,” Dominguez Puerta says, adding that short-range eVTOL vehicles look feasible now. “I believe that 35 km, plus reserves, is achievable and the technology is there.” Airbus is learning a lot from Voom, an online booking service that aggregates demand for helicopter flights in order to increase utilization and reduce costs. “Voom provides feedback from end users that is hard for OEMs to get. It is incredibly valuable information we can use toward product policy,” he says. “In Sao Paulo it can take 2 hr. to get to the airport: it is 12 min. by helicopter and people are willing to pay for time,” says Dominguez Puerta. “For 60% of the people we fly in Sao Paulo and Mexico City, it’s the first time they have been in a helicopter, which means we are creating something.” While new combinations of connectivity and business models, such as Voom, will see more helicopters being used for urban mobility “that is going to be capped because of the cost of operating a helicopter today,” he says. “With new [eVTOL] vehicle configurations that will change, because it is going to become more economical.”

Four-seat CityAirbus ducted-rotor eVTOL is expected to fly shortly in Germany. Credit: Airbus

Voom has so far flown more than 10,000 people in Sao Paulo, where it now has 50 flights a day, increasing helicopter capacity utilization by 40-60%. “Our idea is to expand into all the megacities, because we are creating the networks. In parallel we will be working on the new generation of vehicles and at some stage we will swap them in,” he says. “By consolidating demand, we have those helicopters flying more and bringing down operating cost. But the machine is what it is, and until we have those new configurations out there—with fewer moving parts, less maintenance and one day, autonomy—I think we will still have a niche market with not enough volume to industrialize.” Dominguez Puerta expects the shift to new vehicles to begin within five years “because we start to see a lot of movement from the regulators.” He cites as an example the European Aviation Safety Agency’s public consultation on special conditions for eVTOL certification. This is expected to lead to regulations by the end of 2019. “Soon we are going to have a regulatory framework to certify these vehicles. The race will begin then, and not before.” Based on aerospace product-development cycle times of 5-7 years, that means vehicles could be ready by 2025-28. The next step, he says, will be the introduction of autonomy, to replace the pilot with another passenger and thereby increase revenues and reduce costs. But autonomy is not addressed in the draft of initial EASA and FAA regulations. That will take another rulemaking step, a process that typically takes seven years.

Airbus and Audi are in talks about demonstrating the Pop.Up fly/drive concept. Credit: Italdesign

Only then will the market move into “real industrialization and scaling—that is going to take us probably to 2030,” says Dominguez Puerta. Airbus forecasts the market will achieve large-scale production, high vehicle utilization and low operating costs by the mid-2030s. “If it is not the mid-2030s then it’s going to be the end of the 2030s, but it will happen,” he says. Airbus expects to operate and support at least the initial vehicles. “We want to master two things,” he says. “First is the overall reliability and performance of the system, to be able to properly train and hand over these systems. Second is to understand the flow of value through the operations. A lot of the value flows through the operator.” The UAM vehicle market is already crowded with projects, most of them startups, but also Bell, Boeing, Embraer and other legacy aerospace OEMs. “Today there are 118 companies out there developing these vehicles, because it doesn’t take much money to build one and there is a lot of money from venture capitalists flowing into them,” he says. “How many will survive? If I was to guess, there will be space for 5-6 manufacturers. Giving birth to a potential configuration will take $5-10 million: Anybody can do that, and that is why we have so many,” he says. “Bringing that to the next stage, where you get something flying, will cost you $50 million: There is a lot of space for that. “Bringing that to certification and industrialization will take you to the hundreds of millions, eventually a billion [dollars],” Dominguez Puerta says. “I don’t think a lot of ventures will fund that, and I think this is where a lot of these startups are starting to see the wall. I think there will be a lot of partnerships, and eventually acquisitions—and also some will die.” Safety will be critical to the adoption of urban air mobility, he says. “The safety required for commercial aviation is 10-9. The safety of the Paris Metro is 10-9. Society accepts safety factors like that. We should strive to have our vehicles as safe as commercial aviation.” Aviation authorities will set the safety level, and Dominguez Puerta says 2019 will see a lot of joint work with industry on the critical regulations. “There is a saying: You can’t dance faster than the music unless you are playing it. Well, the music is played by the regulators.”