Lockheed Martin remains committed to delivering 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (JSF) to Turkey, but that military’s failed coup has several defense analysts warning that the nation’s major defense procurement programs could be at risk.
Marillyn Hewson, Lockheed president and CEO, stresses that Turkey remains an essential business partner. In addition to the F-35 cooperation, Turkey operates Lockheed Martin F-16s; C-130 transport aircraft; fixed-wing sensors, such as Sniper ATPs and Lantirn ER navigation pods and Hellfire missiles; and Sikorsky S-7s0 and UH-60 Black Hawks, among other equipment.
“I know there’s been a lot of churn in Turkey recently, but it still remains a very valued NATO partner for us and is an essential security partner in that region,” Hewson said during a July 19 earnings call. “We have not seen any indication that it will impact the F-35 or any of their other programs, so we will continue to assess the situation.”
A spokeswoman for the Pentagon's F-35 Joint Program Office also said there would be no immediate impact to Turkey's F-35 program. 
However, defense analysts are warning that Turkey’s F-35 buy, as well as other big-ticket defense deals, could be in jeopardy in the long term due to potential political and economic fallout from the events of July 15.
The failed coup gave President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a convenient excuse to crack down on an independent military, cementing the rule of what is increasingly becoming an unstable, authoritarian government operating in close proximity to radical Islamists, analysts warn. Depending on how the situation plays out, the U.S. may have to worry about sensitive technology falling into the wrong hands.
“The problem is this is the first miserable failure that allowed an autocrat to accelerate the country’s move toward authoritarianism along Islamic lines,” says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group. “On the U.S. side, technology and training, sharing anything—those are things that the U.S. is going to get much more sensitive about. . . . On the other side, you are dragging resources away from an independent military to a bunch of thugs.”
Erdogan’s purge of more than 20,000 people from the top brass, police ranks, universities and the judiciary may alienate the U.S. and NATO states; already, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Turkey could fall foul of NATO’s “requirement with respect to democracy.”
The cooling of Turkey’s relations with the West, coupled with any potential economic fallout from the coup, could open up a space for Russia or China to move in, says Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners. 
The Turkish air force flew F-16C Fighting Falcons over the capital, Ankara, during the failed coup July 15. Credit: Tony Osborne/AW&ST

“What is the economic impact to Turkey? [Could this] drive a wedge between the U.S. and Turkey? Is that something that could affect the [F-35] program?” Callan posits. He likens the situation to a big rock being dropped in a pond: “You just have to wait to see where the ripples hit the shore.”
The possible thawing of Turkey’s relations with Russia may be a concern to the U.S. down the line, particularly in light of the sensitive defense equipment we share with Ankara, analysts agree. If circumstances deteriorate, espionage becomes a serious concern, acknowledges Eric Edelman, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and undersecretary of defense for policy.
Had the coup succeeded, Turkey’s JSF partnership would have been at risk due to Section 508 of the foreign assistance act, which requires the U.S. to cut aid to any country “whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.” Still, Edelman points out that in the case of Egypt, the U.S. government eventually waived that requirement.
Depending on the turn of events, Turkey could decide to back out of the F-35 program of its own accord due to a cooling of relations with the U.S. or financial challenges. Erdogan’s detention of thousands of military officials indicates his nation is focusing resources away from the military and toward internal security, leaving fewer resources to allocate to defense procurement, Aboulafia notes.
For the U.S., delaying or losing Turkey’s planned 100-jet buy would likely drive up acquisition costs for the rest of the partners, says Callan.
“It’s too soon to really tell, but I think people just have to ask how likely that full buy is to go through and I think the events of [July 15 and 16] raise some questions about that,” Callan says. “There are probably other aspects to explore, such as if Turkey slips to the right, what does that do to the overall affordability of the program?”
Turkey, for its part, stands to lose more than $12 billion in industry opportunities if Ankara exits the F-35 program. In total, 10 Turkish companies have supported development or production of the F-35 and its Pratt & Whitney F135 engine over the years, with work ranging from airframe structures and wiring to landing gear components.
The C-130 Hercules transport aircraft is one of many Lockheed Martin-made items currently operated by the Turkish air force. Credit: Tony Osborne/AW&ST

Turkish company Ayesas is now the sole-source supplier for two major F-35 components: the missile remote interface unit and the panoramic cockpit display. Meanwhile, Roketsan and Tubitake-SAGE are developing an advanced precision-guided Stand-off Missile (SOM-J), which will be carried internally on the F-35. At the same time, Turkish Aerospace Industries is currently a key partner for Northrop Grumman on the jets’ center fuselages, composite skins, weapon bay doors and fiber placement composite air inlet ducts.
Additionally, Turkish industry is positioned to play a large role in supporting airframe and engine sustainment. The country was selected to stand up the first European regional F135 engine depot for production and overhaul, at the 1st Air Supply and Maintenance Military Center at Eskisehir. But JSF partners now have to assess whether they really want to rely on an unstable Turkey for critical regional maintenance.
A Pentagon spokesman referred questions to the State Department.
“Turkey is a NATO Ally and a vital member of the counter-[Islamic State] coalition, and despite these events, our shared challenges including counterterrorism and regional efforts with respect to Syria and [Islamic State] will require continued close coordination with Turkey,” says a State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “As always, any proposed defense sales or transfers will continue to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis in accordance with the Arms Export Control Act and the U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy.”  
Editor's note: This story was updated to add comment from the F-35 Joint Program Office.