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Training before game day: Takeaways from China’s most recent encirclement of Taiwan

Geopolitics & Policy

17 October 2024

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By: Robert Dougherty

 

Joint Sword-2024B drill. Photo: PRC Ministry of National Defense

The dust has quickly settled on one of the People’s Republic of China’s largest and most complex joint military drills, Joint Sword-2024B, in the Taiwan Strait.

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) personnel, ships, aircraft and rocket force equipment were deployed to the north, south and east of Taiwan during the military exercise earlier this month on 14 October.

Importantly, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) exercise reportedly broke a previous 2023 record set for the most aircraft (153) detected around Taiwan in a 25-hour period, according to the Republic of China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).

The MND also indicated that 111 of the 153 aircraft crossed into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone during the unusually short one-day exercise.

The encirclement also coincided with a speech from Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, encouraging the nation’s sovereignty.

“The drill ... serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of ’Taiwan independence’ forces,” PLA Eastern Theater Command spokesperson Senior Captain Li Xi said.

“It is a legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding national sovereignty and national unity.”

The action was conducted via the PLA Eastern Theater Command’s Liaoning aircraft carrier task group, with vessels and aircraft approaching Taiwan from different directions. This was supported by sea and air personnel conducting a simulated blockade of ports and key areas, as well as sea-air combat-readiness patrols and simulated assaults on maritime and ground targets.

 

Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder, speaking on 14 October, said the US closely monitored the People’s Liberation Army exercise.

“This military pressure operation is irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilising. As the White House noted last week, it is a long-standing tradition for Taiwan’s president to deliver remarks on 10/10,” he said.

“It is a routine, domestic-focused address that has historically prompted little response from the PRC. Still, the PRC has chosen this opportunity to take provocative, military action.

“Deterrence remains strong in the Indo-Pacific, and the department remains confident in its current force posture and operations in the region.

“The entire world has a stake in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and we continue to see a growing community of countries committed to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

“We will continue to work with allies and partners to advance our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, despite the PRC’s destabilising behaviour. The United States remains committed to its long-standing one-China policy, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.”

As a military strategy, this latest simulated blockade of the island by PRC forces is a critical preparation for any future realised action to prevent or hinder international intervention or assistance, as well as control export and import of military equipment, food, general trade and resources.

To have any hope of achieving a military action of this magnitude, such as the taking of Taiwan, the PRC main branches of the Air Force, Navy and Army would likely have to show seamless cohesion and act at significant speed to deter the intervention of Western allies.

In this regard I’m reminded of an insightful, yet cheesy quote from American professional basketball player Michael Jordan.

“You don’t show up on game day and expect to be great. Greatness happens in practice. You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them,” he said.

In short, we can expect to see more drills like this one. As the world has seen earlier this month, the different branches of the PRC military machine must train for game day, they must be drilled again and again on this exact situation to operate naturally and smoothly at speed.

Of additional note during the most recent exercise, four formations from the Chinese Coast Guard were also deployed to the exercise to carry out law enforcement patrols surrounding Taiwan.

These units were reportedly able to surround the Taiwanese-controlled Matsu Islands along the south-eastern coast of the PRC and operate on both sides of Taiwan’s mainland waters to support their main branches.

Final thoughts

This latest PLA deployment occurred quickly within 24 hours and highlighted that PRC military units were reportedly able to quickly close the distance to within 39 kilometres of Taiwan during the exercise. In addition, they were also reportedly able to set up outside the major Taiwanese ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung.

The precision and speed of this latest exercise could encourage the theory that the PRC is potentially more prepared and ready to enact a real blockade of Taiwan than previously thought.

I’d wager that if Western experts are telling us that the PRC will only be ready to move on the island during a predestined date in 2027, then the Chinese military will be making their utmost efforts to deliver more exercises like Joint Sword-2024B and push to be ready sooner.