Doubts about American reliability seep into Avalon show
Last week’s Avalon
air show was a magnificent showcase of Royal Australian Air Force
(RAAF) capabilities.
The event, held
amid dusty pastures near Melbourne, featured the backbone of RAAF
combat aircraft, such as the Lockheed Martin F-35A, Boeing F/A-18F
Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler. Other show stalwarts included the
Boeing C-17, E-7A and P-8A, and Lockheed C-130J.
On the army side,
the first
of 40 Sikorsky UH-60M helicopters
made an appearance, as Canberra anticipates its first
of 29 Boeing AH-64E Apaches in late
2025.
The origin of all
this kit, of course, is the USA. This reflects the high premium
Canberra places on interoperability with its ally across the Pacific,
especially given an increasingly aggressive and militaristic China.
Source:
Greg Waldron/FlightGlobal
American made, Australian operated
Yet, show
attendees of a certain age might have recalled the lyrics of the old
Roxy Music tune ‘Avalon’, about the aftermath of a party:
‘Yes the picture’s
changing, every moment… and your destination, you don’t know it…”
During
FlightGlobal’s previous visits to Avalon, Canberra’s reliance on
Washington, DC was viewed as a sure-fire strategy. The second
administration of Donald Trump and its disdain for traditional allies,
however, raises serious questions about America’s reliability.
To be sure,
American companies and military officials were thick on the ground at
Avalon, including representatives from the Secretary of the Air Force
International Affairs or ‘SAF/IA’.
Yet, more
viscerally the sense of a quavering US commitment was underlined by the
late arrival of US fighters, which traditionally have a strong presence
at the show.
While US Air Force
Lockheed F-16s and F-22s showed up for the first public day on 28
March, during the preceding trade days their absence raised eyebrows.
As it happened, the late arrival was due not to Trumpian machinations,
but technical issues with the fighters and a lack of tankers.
Yet, their absence
on the trade days seemed to symbolise America’s wavering commitment.
Moreover, Avalon
is a traditional platform for US generals to speak publicly. At past
iterations major stories about programmes such as the F-35 have broken
at the show. Yet US defence officials – likely fearful of the Trump
administration – kept a very low profile with media.
In public, of
course, RAAF officials did not touch on political matters, but on 27
March the service’s head of capability was asked about rumours that
Washington has a ‘kill switch’ for the F-35. He quashed
these concerns categorically,
but in years past the question would not have been raised in the first
place.
Officials have
also made much about Australia’s ability to support the F-35 and other
US-supplied aircraft locally.
There are signs
that Canberra is at least contemplating greater autonomy. Boeing
Defence Australia and the RAAF continue to develop the MQ-28A
Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft.
If the RAAF orders the type, it will be produced locally.
In a similar vein,
Australia has been briefed
on the multi-national Global Combat Air Programme
being developed by Italy, Japan and the UK – countries who also have
reason to fear the changes in the USA.
For now, Australia
is firmly locked into US programmes, but its future capability
acquisition moves will serve as a bellwether for allies’ changing views
of the USA.
In addition to
covering Avalon, the FlightGlobal defence team was also in Portugal,
where a senior air force official said that an
F-35A buy is still possible, despite recent
concerns about the type expressed by its defence minister.
Elsewhere, Taiwan
received its first F-16 Block 70, while Hindustan
Aeronautics scored a massive
attack helicopter order.
For this and more
coverage, visit our defence landing page.
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