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What packed plane 'boneyards' mean for the future of air travel
When
the Covid-19 pandemic brought international travel to a near-standstill in 2020,
commercial airlines parked unneeded planes in some of the most remote locations
on Earth.
Air
New Zealand sent 12 of its 15 Boeing 777s to long-term desert storage facilities
in California and New Mexico, grounding three remaining widebody aircraft in
Auckland.
Four
777-300 aircraft were parked up in Victorville in the western Mojave Desert,
while the 777-200s were divided between there and Roswell, New
Mexico.
Facilities
of this type are known as commonly called boneyards – or aircraft graveyards
where planes are left to slowly rust into metallic skeletons or are pulled apart
for scrap.
So
what now for those planes? Will they return to service, or will our flying
experiences change forever?
Why
do planes get sent to deserts?
There
are three main reasons: Deserts make planes less susceptible to corrosion,
there’s plenty of space, and it saves them a lot of money.
Ian
Petchenik, a spokesman for flight tracking website Flightradar24, says moisture
damages planes in storage.
“The
drier the climate, the easier it is to keep aircraft components in proper
working order and stave off corrosion. And deserts offer a large amount of space
for a low price.”
Airports,
by contrast, are often close to the sea, which means corrosion and slows down a
return to service.
Most
busy, working airports don’t have the space to store large numbers of aircraft.
Frankfurt Airport, for one, closed its newest runway twice in 2020 for Lufthansa
to park its planes on.
Aviation
expert Irene King says airports tend to charge “prohibitive parking fees”.
Airlines pay about US$5000 (NZ$7000) a month to store a plane at a desert
facility, she says, noting that this is “much, much cheaper” than it would cost
to store one in New Zealand.
Are
planes looked after in storage or left to rust?
That
depends on whether it’s due to fly again. If it is to be recalled, facility
technicians ensure all entrances to the aircraft are sealed to keep out dirt,
dust and wildlife. They run the engines and other systems periodically to ensure
they keep ticking over.
“The
interior of the aircraft is also prepared for storage,” Petchenik says. “For
instance, Qantas’ stored A380s at Victorville are loaded with over 100kg of
silica to prevent moisture from affecting the cabin fixtures.”
“If
planes have to be parked up with a view that they should retain a value or be
able to return to service at a cost that is acceptable, then the dryer the
park-up facility the better.”
How
many planes are in boneyards?
The
pandemic has forced more planes into boneyards than any other event in recent
history.
Last
year was the worst on record for the aviation industry, with traffic only about
a third of 2019 levels, International Air Transport Association (IATA) figures
show.
International
traffic in 2020 was 75.6 per cent lower than in 2019.
“Last
year was a catastrophe,” IATA CEO Alexandre de Juniac says. “There is no other
way to describe it. What recovery there was over the Northern Hemisphere summer
season stalled in autumn and the situation turned dramatically worse over the
year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed in the
face of new outbreaks and new strains of Covid-19.”
The
association has predicted there will be twice as much traffic in 2021 as there
was in 2020, but with the new Covid-19 strains all bets are off.
London-based
aviation data and analytics company Cirium said in February that 32 per cent of
the world’s passenger jets were in storage, and many may remain there for some
time.
Long-haul
aircraft are likely to remain grounded for longer than domestic
planes.
“Yes
there are domestic 737s and A320s parked up, but the expectation is that at
least 80 per cent of these will be flying by the Northern Hemisphere summer,”
King said. “For the long-haul aircraft, the situation is not so rosy with
predictions that less than 40 per cent of the pre-Covid fleet is
flying.”
Petchenik
says most aircraft sent to storage during the pandemic will eventually return to
service, but the end is nigh for certain large wide-body planes.
The
future looks particularly dire for four-engine wide-bodies as they are less fuel
efficient and more expensive to run than twin-engine models such as the Boeing
787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350.
“Large
aircraft, particularly those with four engines, are the clear losers as far as
ever flying again is concerned,” he said.
Airlines
are hanging on to A330 and B777-300 wide-bodies, however, thanks to their
ability to carry cargo efficiently, King said.
Will
Air NZ’s stored wide-bodies return to service?
Air
New Zealand said in September that its 777s wouldn’t come out of storage for a
year at least, and an airline spokesperson told Stuff that is still the
case.
The
airline has indicated that the older 777-200s are no longer needed. They could
be sold or scrapped.
The
777 – the largest twin-engine aircraft in the world – is also the largest
aircraft in the national carrier’s fleet and has operated most of its long-haul
routes for the past 15 years.
Patterson
said it is “an unfortunate reality” that many of Air New Zealand’s aircraft in
long-term storage will not be recommissioned.
“Demand
for long-haul international travel following the pandemic will be relatively
sluggish and so Air New Zealand will not need such a large fleet
initially.
“It
is likely that some of its older Boeing 777 may never return to active service
for the airline and instead will be sold to other airlines or for scrap. There
will be a significant glut of such older aircraft being sold by other airlines
so the value of them will be very low.”
Air
New Zealand said its international schedule will be operated by more
fuel-efficient Boeing 787 Dreamliners, while A320s and A320neo and A321neo
aircraft would fly trans-Tasman and Pacific Island routes.
“These
aircraft will offer the airline better prospects of returning to a cash
operating surplus in a world where long-haul travel demand may only sluggishly
return,” Patterson says.
What
about the other airlines?
A
lot had already begun replacing long-range wide-bodies with higher-tech, more
fuel-efficient models before the virus struck.
British
Airways announced in July that it would retire its 31-strong fleet of Boeing
747s four years earlier than planned because of the pandemic.
The
UK carrier says it would operate more flights on Airbus A350s and 787
Dreamliners, expecting them to help it achieve net-zero carbon emissions by
2050.
That
same month, Qantas put its last 747 into early retirement in the Mojave Desert,
six months ahead of schedule. Air France, Dutch carrier KLM and US carrier Delta
are among the other airlines to have retired their 747 fleets.
Delta
has also sent its 777 fleet to desert storage facilities, saying it would
replace them with Airbus A350s which burn 21 per cent less fuel.
Japan
Airlines and rival All Nippon Airways are among the other carriers to have
recently announced plans to retire 777s, while Germany’s Lufthansa said it would
retire the last of its 747-400s and that eight A380 superjumbos would only be
reactivated in the event of a sharp market recovery.
The
A380 was on the way out before the pandemic struck – Airbus announced in
February 2019 that it would stop making the world’s largest superjumbo passenger
jet after Emirates, its largest customer, reduced an order from 53 planes to
14.
The
UAE-based airline opted for 70 smaller, more efficient, A330 and A350
aircraft.
Some
carriers had orders for newer wide-bodies before the pandemic but, with the
future of international travel still so uncertain, many have sought to delay
deliveries, swap them for smaller models, or cancel their orders
entirely.
The
silver lining of all this is that the pandemic is helping pave the way for a
more environmentally-friendly aviation sector. Cirium says new, fuel-efficient
aircraft will dominate skies as airlines seek to lower their carbon
footprints.
“This
year has seen more narrow-body aircraft fly, mainly as domestic flights are
recovering versus international. The popularity of the Airbus A321neo is
evident. The Boeing 737 Max is now making a return to the skies. Each of these
aircraft have the latest technology and excellent range, are the furthest away
from the next maintenance check, and are the most fuel efficient.”
How
will this change the international flight experience?
When
international travel resumes en masse, we’re likely to see smaller aircraft,
including more narrow-bodied models, on overseas routes previously flown by
wide-bodies.
Unlike
wide-bodies, with their twin aisles and rows of up to 10 seats, narrow-bodies
have single aisles, six seats per row and generally less space.
Next-generation
narrow-bodies equipped with the latest engines include the Airbus A220, the
Boeing 737-Max, and the Airbus 321XLR. Capable of flying up to 8700 kilometres,
or for around 10 hours, the latter has been earmarked as a potential game
changer.
Ten
hours in the air isn't always enough for flights from New Zealand though. Hence,
Air New Zealand using its Dreamliners on longer routes. Some Dreamliners are
capable of ultra-long-haul flights – such as Auckland to New York – but carry
fewer passengers than wide-bodies, depending on configuration.
While
smaller than its 777 aircraft, Air New Zealand’s 787s still offer plenty of
space. There are two aisles and nine seats per row in economy, compared with the
777’s 10 seats. Business class passengers are able to lie down in flat beds in
both models.
The
Airbus A320, A320neo and A321neo aircraft on trans-Tasman and Pacific routes are
all single-aisle, narrow-bodies with six seats per row.
Going
forward, King says passengers are going to have to accept that wide-bodied
models will be available less often, at least in the medium term.
However,
with modern fit-outs, that doesn’t necessarily translate to a more uncomfortable
experience.
“It’s
just different. There are two engines rather than four (and) fewer passengers
per aircraft, but perhaps a more modern ambiance as manufacturers are always
striving to improve the experience.”
Flights
on narrow-bodies aren’t any slower either.
“All
aircraft of the modern generation fly more or less at the same speeds
irrespective of size,” she says.
As
for whether we will have to pay more for international flights in future, King
says it will depend on the demand. On highly competitive routes, passengers
probably won’t have to pay more, she said.
“However
some passengers are prepared to pay a premium for a nonstop flight – for example
from London to Perth – so it’s hard to say, because it comes down to what the
passenger is prepared to pay. There are also some days when passenger loads are
lighter and so airfares are lower. It’s simply a supply-demand
equation.”
Pandemic
or no pandemic, some things never change it seems.
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