Conflict Intelligence Team – Med spesielt innblikk i innenriks, russisk politikk
The Insider and Bellingcat declared “undesirable” in Russia
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Mobilization
in Russia for July 18-19, 2024 CIT Volunteer Summary
In the Irkutsk region,
funds are being raised for body bags for
evacuating corpses from the frontline. This request was made in a closed chat for
military wives, according to reports by Lyudi Baikala. Military personnel
involved in body evacuation have appealed for donations to cover the cost of
the bags.
In
the Kamchatka region, Rosgvardia (the Russian National Guard) is offering hunters to donate their rifles to the
war, implying
that the surrendered civilian weapons will be used to combat UAVs.
Based on open sources,
Mediazona [independent Russian media outlet] and BBC News Russian, together
with volunteers, have verified the names of 59,725 Russian fighters
killed in Ukraine, including 7,444 mobilized soldiers. Over the past week, the list has
been supplemented
with 557 soldiers.
Russian
soldiers have been awarded bonuses for destroying Abrams tanks. Soldiers from the Group of Troops
"Center," fighting in the Avdiivka direction in the Donetsk region of
Ukraine, received payments of 500,000 rubles [$5,670], funded by the Fores
company. A company representative, Ilya Potanin, promised that Russian soldiers
would
also receive bonuses for destroying F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft, even though the delivery of F-15
fighters has never been announced by Western allies.
Longreads
Novaya Gazeta Europe [European
edition of the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta] has estimated the impact of the war on the Russian economy. According to journalists,
Russia may
have already lost between 1.5 million and 1.7 million people or about 2.2% of
the workforce.
These figures primarily include mobilized soldiers and contract soldiers sent
to the frontline, those who have emigrated and combat losses. If there is a new
wave of mobilization, the number of people removed from the economy to the frontline could increase by
another 50 to 60% by the end of 2024.
The Insider [independent Russian
investigative media outlet] reports
about
a punishment system in the Russian Army that is based on prison traditions. Commanders are creating "punitive
platoons"
or squads of voluntary assistants to strengthen discipline and punish drinking
soldiers. These groups of soldiers receive certain privileges, such as
exemptions from participating in assaults.
According
to calculations by the Re: Russia project, Russian
authorities may
have spent up to 3 trillion rubles [$34 billion] on payments to war
participants
over the past year. This amount constitutes 1.5% of GDP or 7.5-8.2% of
all federal budget expenditures for 2024. Of this sum, 1.55-1.8 trillion rubles [$17.6-$20
billion] has been allocated for monthly salaries of military personnel, while
the remaining 1.2 trillion rubles [$13.3 billion] has been designated for
payments for injuries, disabilities and deaths.
The
Sever.Realii [part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty] online media outlet discussed how authorities are coercing convicts to
enlist in the war. The Cherta [Boundary] independent online media outlet published interviews with gamblers who sign
military contracts and go to the frontline to pay off their debts. Additionally,
Idel.Realii, also part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, released a report on a military
propaganda marathon in Tatarstan.
According to Meduza [international Russian-language
online media outlet], Sergey Kirienko, the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the
Russian Presidential Administration, stated in a meeting with deputy governors
that the return of participants from the war with
Ukraine will become "the main factor of political and social risks."
Kirienko believes that war participants "poorly
adapt" to civilian life after returning from the frontline. He
noted that many went to war to be released from penal
colonies, and upon returning home, they commit
crimes again. However, Kirienko did not
propose any specific measures to address the problem. Meduza's sources
noted that in private conversations, officials are already referring to those returning from the frontline as "the
new Afghans" and fear that they too might start forming their own criminal groups. Two other
participants of the meeting told Meduza that, in their opinion, the Kremlin does not understand the scale of risks that Russia may
face after the war.
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