The sequence is always the same. Only minutes after the first bits of information emerge about an aircraft crash, speculation about why it happened begins. The case of EgyptAir Flight 804 (MS804), which crashed May 19, is no different. And to be clear: Speculating in these circumstances is simply very human.
But what has followed the crash of EgyptAir Flight 804 is far more than the usual speculation about possible causes in the various social media channels and the general press. The loss of the Airbus A320has instantaneously become very political. 
Egyptian government and military officials appear to have never heard of international protocol, which essentially gives the respective aircraft accident investigation bodies the sole mandate to communicate information, among other things. Several different Egyptian government or military branches became involved in the public discussion, often contradicting themselves by leaking allegedly accurate information from the ongoing investigation or other sources. Though also providing conflicting updates at times, EgyptAir in comparison has handled the immediate aftermath more professionally.
Credit: Mehmet Mustafa Celik/Wikimedia

Flawed communication is one concern; the handling of the few pieces of debris recovered from the sea so far by military non-specialists is another and more serious issue. One does not even have to go as far as alleging that the military might have an interest in eliminating evidence that could point the accident investigation in a particular direction. Improper handling of debris alone can make finding the real causes more difficult.
Recent events in Egypt bring back bad memories about the Oct. 31, 2015, crash of a Metrojet Airbus A321 over the Sinai Peninsula. There was early evidence that the aircraft had been downed by an explosive device, but it took Egypt months to concede that the aircraft had been blown up by terrorists. Why? Politically it just seemed to be too sensitive an issue: The government had to admit there was a local Islamic State branch powerful and capable enough to circumvent airport security. A technical problem could underlie an aircraft accident anywhere, but a cause specific to Egypt
And it did: The country was already in crisis mode because of political upheaval, an economy in distress and a slump in tourist arrivals. The Metrojet crash made matters much worse, and not only for EgyptAir: Many European leisure carriers were forced to direct capacity away from their Egyptian routes. That, in combination with a massive reduction in demand for trips to Turkey, has led to a shift of capacity toward places perceived as “safer,” such as Spain or Italy. Both countries expect a record summer, while Egypt and Turkey are suffering.
EgyptAir itself has a history of denial when it comes to aircraft catastrophes. The airline found the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) conclusions for the Oct. 31, 1999, crash of a Boeing 767-300ER off Nantucket, Rhode Island, hard to accept. The NTSB argued in its final report that the relief first officer had intentionally brought the aircraft down, essentially in an act of suicide.
Even though what happened to MS804 is still far from clear, airlines across Europe have already noticed some adverse impact on demand, indicative of how concerned the flying public has become about terrorist attacks on aircraft.
Of course, justified or not, such events bring airport security back to the top of the public agenda. Overall, the European regulatory response to attacks on civil aviation has been measured, with some exceptions: U.K. airlines were banned from flying to Sharm-el-Sheikh on the Sinai after the Metrojet crash. But more dramatic has been the impact of new security measures at Brussels Airport. Two hours for passengers to clear the security screening process has become the new norm in the European capital, an unbearable situation that has little to do with true security improvements, but more to do with political fallout in the aftermath of the attacks on March 22.
Given the way Egypt handled the 2015 Metrojet and 1999 EgyptAir crashes, and seems to be handling the latest tragedy, the international aviation safety community should keep a close eye on the investigation. The case unfortunately shows the sensibleness of the International Civil Aviation Organization regulations that require several different parties at the table. It is also encouraging that the French aircraft accident investigation bureau BEA, internationally recognized for its high standards, is participating in the process by default. One can be certain that it will stick to the facts.