Kim Jong Un’s record of April missile tests raises prospect of launches, reveals
Amid growing indicators about the possibility of new submarine-launched ballistic capabilities being completed and a record of using its April 15 Day of the Sun anniversary to test missile technology, analysts were uncertain Tuesday whether conditions are currently right for North Korea to use its forthcoming anniversary for military-related events.
Since Kim Jong Un came to power, North Korea has tested missile-related technology in the days immediately before and after the April 15 anniversary on five separate occasions. Thursday will mark the 10th Day of the Sun holiday since Kim came to power and the 109th birthday of the late founding president Kim Il Sung.
Kim reportedly guided major ballistic missile tests on or around the holiday in 2016 and 2017, while North Korea attempted to launch a satellite into space a couple of days before Kim Il Sung’s big 100th birth anniversary in 2012. North Korea also said it conducted a “tactical guided weapon” test in April 2019, and reportedly test-fired cruise missiles on April 14 last year, but DPRK state media never acknowledged the latter test.
As a result, it’s possible that Pyongyang could buffer the forthcoming holiday with further missile tests or a reveal of new military technology, like the 3,000-ton ballistic submarine South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said was completed in recent days, citing unnamed sources. Kim last publicly inspected the submarine – which is thought could house three ballistic missiles – in July 2019.
However, some experts told NK News on Tuesday that, while North Korea has a range of active weapons programs to choose from for its next test, the upcoming birthday of North Korea’s founding leader may not be the best time.
“Kim Il Sung’s birth anniversary is one of [North Korea’s] most important anniversaries, so it’s a good occasion to bring people together internally,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a nonresident fellow for 38 North at the Stimson Center. “They also know that the outside world is always watching around these holidays to see what they do.”
“They’re definitely looking for their timing,” Lee said. “But I don’t think there’s an established pattern to be able to say that they’re going to time Kim Il Sung’s birth anniversary with weapons tests.”
Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, agreed that larger ballistic missile testing does not seem to be imminent, but said North Korea appears poised to test a range of weapons systems.
“They’ve created the menu of things they can do this year, and it includes testing maybe from the west coast or cruise missiles from the east coast,” he said.
More tests of newly-developed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) are also likely in the cards, according to Ankit Panda, a Stanton senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. One of these systems was tested for the first and only time so far at the end of last month, in a launch reportedly led by top military official Ri Pyong Chol without DPRK leader Kim Jong Un in attendance.
“[The new SRBM] is a Ri Pyong Chol undertaking like the KN23/24/25 — all of which saw bursts of multiple tests,” Panda said. The next test of this system could come around the holiday this week because it is a “significant date,” he said, but he added the date is ultimately “not the first consideration.”
Regarding reports that have received global attention this month about work on a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) underwater launch platform in Sinpho, Schmerler said the jury’s still out over whether the work constitutes preparations for another SLBM test soon.
He said an SLBM test from the west coast is another possibility to watch for this year due to unusual recent activity around another underwater launch platform in Nampho.
But he also told NK News about fresh movements of a ship at another base near Sinpho that he said could be used as a target for a cruise missile test soon. Notably, North Korea did not make public any details of its recent reported cruise missile tests conducted in March 2021 as well as July and April 2020.
If Pyongyang does decide to resume larger missile testing soon, Schmerler believes authorities will likely “be a bit more transparent about sending signals using satellite imagery” as part of their process of “feeling out their relationship with [U.S. President Joe] Biden.”
“It’s not a matter of if North Korea is going to test weapons,” Lee said. “It’s a matter of when.”
Ingen kommentarer:
Legg inn en kommentar
Merk: Bare medlemmer av denne bloggen kan legge inn en kommentar.