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Comeback kid: the A380’s post-Covid story

 

 

 

 

Daniel Fowkes

 

·         Updated: June 23, 2023

In February 2019, as part of its order for 40 A330-900s and 30 A350-900s, Emirates downsized its remaining commitments for the A380, the world’s largest passenger plane and backbone of the Emirate’s fleet. With a lack of delivery backlog following Emirates’ decision and no new orders on the horizon, Airbus announced production of the A380 would cease in 2021. 14 years after delivering the first A380, Airbus delivered its final A380 to Emirates.

Airbus’ answer to the dominance Boeing enjoyed in the large passenger aircraft market, the A380 launched in the early 2000s with high hopes to connect megacities around the world, but by the time Airbus ceased production, it had only delivered 251 aircraft to airlines.

When the global pandemic dropped international travel to zero, the A380 was one of the first aircraft to be placed in long-term storage by airlines. A few A380 operators even declared their A380 flying days were over for good. But as air travel around the world recovers, some of those same airlines have found themselves bringing the A380 back into service. What does the future look like for an aircraft that many say arrived too late to the industry?

The A380’s role pre-pandemic

For some airlines like Qantas, seasonal demand sees their average weekly A380 flights increase. Whereas, for others it stays the same.

Before the global pandemic, the Airbus A380 was experiencing its final years of routine production. Additionally, despite its young age, customers were beginning to plan for futures without the quad-engined plane, opting to move in favor of more fuel-efficient twin-engined aircraft. Though the writing for an A380-less future was on the wall even before the pandemic, the aircraft nevertheless remained popular, completing 121,210 flights in 2019. 

The A380s charm for operators has been its ability to help with high demand-driven routes. Several airlines have leaned on the capabilities during peak seasonal travel. This is reflected in higher monthly A380 flights occurring typically during the airlines’ busiest periods.

Pre-pandemic, British Airways’ busiest months for A380 operations occur during summer in the United Kingdom. During summer, they flew 100 A380 flights per week. Whereas during winter, they averaged only 89 flights per week. This can also be said for Air France and Lufthansa. The pair experienced their busiest A380 operations during their home countries’ summer season, with a 19% drop experienced during winter. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Qantas’ busiest period for A380 flights was during the warm Australian summer. These were the only months Qantas broke the 100 weekly flights threshold with the series. 

Interestingly though, moving away from the trend of utilizing summer demand to see A380 flights flourish, Malaysia Airlines and Korean Air reported their highest weekly and monthly flight figures during cooler months. In contrast, their A380s flying figures occasionally dropped by 30 per week during warmer months. 

Airlines such as Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and Emirates, with business models that emphasize transit through massive hubs rather than tourism, showed no substantial seasonal variation.

Analyzing 2019’s A380 operations

HiFly flew the A380 the fewest amount of times in 2019, the airline only operated a lone second-hand unit.

2019 was the last full year of flying before Covid restrictions impacted travel. In 2019, the A380s largest operator was Emirates with 61,679 flights. The airline operated just over 50% of all Airbus A380 flights for the year. Singapore Airlines was the second largest operator, with 10,427 flights recorded in 2019. The Changi-based carrier remained the only airline to break the 10,000 mark alongside Emirates. 

At 4,000 fewer flights than Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa rounded off the top 3 for 2019 with a recorded 6,413 movements. To showcase the sheer size of the Emirates A380 fleet, between the 1st and 3rd largest operators in 2019, there was a difference of 55,266 flights. 

The A380 operator with the fewest number of flights, excluding Airbus, was Hi Fly, sitting at 165. Hi Fly remains in 2023 still the only company to fly a second-hand A380. When operational, they utilized its capabilities for wet lease and charter purposes. 

All Nippon Airways were also the only other company not to exceed 1,000 flights for the year. However, ANA only welcomed their first of three A380s towards the second quarter of 2019 and could only reach 678 flights.

In total, there were 122,210 flights in 2019 spread across 16 operators.

A global fleet grounded in an instant

During the beginning of 2020, flight patterns stayed the same for some operators of the world’s largest passenger plane. However, for others, it drastically changed. Notably, operators based in Asia from Asiana Airlines, China Southern, Korean Air, Malaysia Airlines and Thai Airways each saw significant plummets in weekly flights before the remainder of the operators—a move that ties in with the progression of the pandemic and the reaction from local governments on imposing travel restrictions. 

China Southern saw a peak of 72 A380 flights during one week in January. However, by the second week of February, this had dropped to just one recorded flight. Whereas, in contrast, British Airways flights during the middle of January sat at 90 weekly flights, and by the first week of March had only fallen to 83. 

A similar weekly flight tally can also be applied to airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France and Qantas.

Carriers with a base in Asia were the first to react to the COVID-19 pandemic by grounding their Airbus A380s.

During the week from March 17th 2020, to March 23rd 2020, there were 1191 recorded Airbus A380 flights. However, precisely one week following this, from March 24-30 2020, this figure fell to 277. 

Such a change represents a drop of over 900 in the space of a week. This was primarily aided by remaining airlines not based in Asia grounding their fleet as a response to restrictions imposed by the government and the precipitous decline in travel demand. 

By the last week of April, there were only 19 Airbus A380 flights—one of the lowest figures since its introduction to service. China Southern, which was the only airline to never stop flying the A380 during the pandemic, operated 12 of the 21 flights. In contrast, not a single flight was used with the equipment for airlines like Emirates, Qatar Airways, Qantas and even Lufthansa. 

Initially, hope remained that the aircraft could be back in service quickly. Based off pre-pandemic figures, summer months were the A380’s busiest. During the North American summer of 2019 (June 21-September 23), airlines operated 34,299 flights. Hopes of replicating these figures in 2020 quickly faded. For that year’s summer season (June 20-September 22), only 1,078 flights were operated by an Airbus A380. China Southern Airlines and Emirates accounted for 91% of flights during this period, flying 988 of the 1,078 flights.

A line graph highlighting Airbus A380 flights from each operator on a weekly basis from the first week of 2019 to April 24th, 2023.

Mounting a comeback

As a global A380 fleet was grounded in a matter of weeks, 2020 remained a challenging year for the aircraft. By the summer of 2021, restrictions eased in some regions and carriers began resuming services with the plane. While demand had built up, due to constraints around travel, an aircraft with capacity such as the A380 was still deemed not required at most airlines. 

However, as 2021 came to a close, several airlines resumed flying with the aircraft and notably, in November, British Airways started flying the plane again. In 9 weeks to close the year, it averaged 32 weekly flights totaling 289. Qatar Airways also returned their first A380 to service in November 2021, finishing the year with a total of 251 flights. To close out 2021, Singapore Airlines returned their superjumbo to the skies. The Changi-based carrier flew the type 204 times across the final eight weeks of the year.

British Airways were among the airlines to be the first to return the Airbus A380 to service in 2021.

2022 was labeled as another year of recovery for airlines. Slowly but surely, there was an apparent need for the A380 as demand returned in select markets. Asiana Airlines wouldn’t re-introduce the aircraft until the year’s mid-way point, with 619 total flights. This represented a significant decline from the 3773 recorded flights in 2019. 

By April, Qantas had also initiated return plans for its A380s, with weekly activity recorded in the low teens. Qantas saw significant pent-up demand and the need for a higher capacity plane became increasingly evident. By year’s end, the airline was flying the type 40 times a week. As a result, 1,253 were recorded by Qantas for 2022. While down from 4,564 in 2019, it was still a building block for the return of the Australian aviation industry. 

All Nippon Airways and Korean Air would also react to easing restrictions and rising demand by reactivating their Airbus A380s in 2022. ANA flew the type only 171 times in 2022. However, with a fleet of only three and almost all activity coming in the last five months of the year, it was a solid return for the airline. 

Meanwhile, Korean Air saw weekly flights in 2022 peak in the first week of December. The airline flew the A380 642 times throughout the year. However, 599 of those were from the 1st week of July onwards. 

Qatar Airways, British Airways and Singapore Airlines would build upon their reactivation in 2021 with numbers growing significantly. By the last two quarters of 2022, British Airways recorded higher weekly flights with their A380s than pre-pandemic. Qatar Airways were only lower than weekly 2019 figures by a small percentage. However, Singapore Airlines would still need to double their weekly flights to reach pre-pandemic figures.

Airlines forced to return the A380 to service?

Qatar Airways were forced to return the A380 to service due to rising demand and too few available aircraft, despite their desires to keep the fleet grounded permanently

With their A380 fleets in deep storage, some airlines announced they would be exiting the fleet permanently. However, some of those very airlines would eventually be forced to return the type to service as demand surged. 

Qatar Airways’ CEO Akbar Al Baker has often said acquiring the A380 was a mistake and took pleasure in retiring the airline’s 10 A380s. In 2019, the airline operated 5,888 flights with the Airbus A380. Unlike most airlines, it never saw a peak or drop-off, with monthly figures remaining consistent. Between April 2020 and November 2021, the airline’s fleet sat idle, but the surge in demand coupled with the carrier’s issues regarding its Airbus A350 aircraft forced Qatar to bring the A380 back into service. 

Despite this, Qatar executives have remained adamant they don’t believe there’s a market for the airplane in the long term and that they genuinely didn’t want to fly it on scheduled services again. Nevertheless, from January 3rd to April 24th 2023, the airline recorded 1,283 flights with the A380. While weekly numbers are typically 30 flights lower than pre-pandemic numbers, any operation exceeds expectations. 

Lufthansa operated the aircraft extensively in the 2010s. In 2019 it recorded 6,413 flights. However, in 2020 it ran only 856. A whopping 846, or 98.8%, came in the first three months of the calendar year. 2020 also marked the year the airline announced its intent to retire the doubledecker permanently. 

Into 2021, Lufthansa executives reiterated the A380 wouldn’t return. The situation would ultimately change, when in 2022 the airline said the A380 would return for the 2023 summer season. Lufthansa began the reactivation process in earnest in April and recommenced commercial flights on 1 June. 

In 2019, Etihad Airways’ A380s completed 5,450 flights. In 2020 at the pandemic’s onset, Etihad also announced that their 10-strong A380 fleet would be permanently grounded. However, in late 2022 the airline announced its return. The aircraft will be deployed on service from Abu Dhabi to London exclusively as well. These flights will resume over the coming summer season.

How Emirates carries the Airbus A380 program on its back

Emirates remains the largest operator of the Airbus A380, accounting for more than 60% of the active global fleet.

For all the discussion of other airlines, the A380 remains Emirates’ aircraft. The airline is the largest operator, accounting for 123 of 251 A380s delivered. Its pre-pandemic share of A380 flights hovered around 50%, for example, in 2019, the airline flew 61,769 out of 121,210 flights. Coming out of the pandemic, the airline’s share of flights has only risen.

Emirates’ mega hub at Dubai is an A380 magnet. In 2019, 29,705 A380 flights had Dubai listed as a destination, thanks to Emirates focus on connecting passengers through Dubai. The second most-visited city for the A380 was London, with 9,025.

With several airlines retiring the Airbus A380 since the emergence of the pandemic or flying it at a reduced rate, Emirates is responsible for 60-70% of all currently active A380s. They are also the only remaining airline with over 13 units in active service, operating 92. 

To understand Emirates’ usage of the A380 better, in 2021, when most airlines had kept their A380s parked Emirates flew the series 13,113 times. This figure represented 86.9% of total flights during the calendar year, as only 15,081 were recorded. This figure is even more stunning when taking into account that many of the flights by other airlines were repositioning flights or aircraft heading to long-term storage. 

By the end of 2022, Emirates was back flying the A380 924 flights per week and remains the driving force for the A380 program

Solidifying itself as a capacity-driven aircraft, the A380 in 2023

Airbus A380 flights for 2023 are growing year-on-year. However, they will always remain lower than in 2019. Its rebound, though, is to be applauded. 

In 2023, as a solid capacity-driven aircraft flourished following the surging demand seen following the conclusion of the global pandemic. As such, while not as present as it once was, the figures are far better than anticipated.

From the beginning of 2023 to April 24th, there were 22,904 flights across ten airlines. This is compared to 36,016 from 16 operators for the same period in 2019. Dubai remains the busiest destination for the A380 with 7,682 flights, followed by London with 2,563 and Singapore with 1,221.

Notably, in 2023, Air France, HiFly, Malaysia Airlines and Thai Airways haven’t flown the aircraft. This reflects a decision from each respective company to retire the aircraft in recent years. Through April, Lufthansa and Etihad have recorded a handful of flights as preparation for their reactivation over the coming months.

Emirates remains the largest weekly operator of the series in 2023, averaging 935 flights per week. This is down from the average of 1,127 weekly flights for the same period pre-pandemic. A dropoff of this many flights can be reflected through the remaining Airbus A380s in storage at the airline.

Qantas’ operations with the A380 continue to increase as they reactivate more of the aircraft. The airline began the year with 41 weekly A380 flights, climbing to 55 during the last week of April. The Australian flag-carrier plans to bring more back into service as well. 

Undoubtedly, the Airbus A380 is in the twilight of its career. As airlines opt for more fuel-efficient jets, their place continues to disappear. The rebound of the A380 in some markets has been unexpected yet welcomed. 

The series remains a customer favorite, and airlines needing it for capacity-driven missions have returned it to service, some more reluctantly than others. For the remainder of 2023, some airlines will continue reactivating their fleets; notably, Lufthansa and Etihad Airways after declaring themselves finished with the aircraft. So while 2023’s final flight tally will be significantly lower than pre-pandemic, it will no doubt be substantially higher than what was expected three years ago when the program’s future was entirely in doubt. 

Track remaining Airbus A380s

To keep up with all remaining A380s on Flightradar24, create an aircraft filter for “A388” or select the Airbus A380 family from the pre-populated list in the Flightradar24 app.

However, if you’re only interested in viewing specific airlines’ Airbus A380 operations, use the following airline callsigns and the “A388” aircraft filter for a more thorough overview. 

• ANA = ANA
• AAR = Asiana Airlines
• BAW = British Airways
• UAE = Emirates
• ETD = Etihad Airways
• KAL = Korean Air
• DLH = Lufthansa
• QFA = Qantas
• QTR = Qatar Airways
• SIA = Singapore Airlines 

 

There is a full tutorial on how to add filters for aircraft available here.