Russia
to lengthen submarine patrols, says Norwegian intel report
By Maxim Starchak
Feb 16, 05:56 PM
The Russian nuclear submarine Tula prepares to conduct a practice launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. (Russian Defence Ministry Press Service via AP)
MOSCOW
— Russia this year will likely step up its presence in the Barents Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean while lengthening its submarine deployments, according to
a new Norwegian intelligence report.
The
Norwegian Intelligence Service released its annual report on Feb. 13, in which
it noted that Russia is increasingly turning to its Northern Fleet to provide
regional deterrence.
“The
Northern Fleet’s naval forces will continue to carry out routine fleet
exercises, longer submarine patrols in the Barents Sea and submarine operations
in the Atlantic Ocean. The supply of new silent multi-role submarines increase
the fleet’s capacity in the Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic Ocean,” the report
stated.
The
Northern Fleet is made up of 26 submarines, 10 surface combatant ships, 16
patrol and coastal vessels, eight mine warfare/mine countermeasure ships, and
eight amphibious platforms, plus fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft and air
defense systems, according to the 2023 Military Balance report by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The
Russian Defence Ministry says the fleet has six ballistic missile submarines in
service, and one is under repair while three more are under construction. There
are also four cruise missile submarines, plus three under construction, per the
ministry.
Pavel
Luzin, a visiting scholar of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Tufts
University, said Russia is completely rethinking its maritime approach amid
bids by Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
“The
Baltic Fleet generally loses all meaning, and Moscow on the contrary will try
to strengthen the Northern Fleet and will look for ways to asymmetrically
respond to NATO,” Luzin told Defense News.
As
for the Northern Fleet’s aircraft inventory, it will likely retain its numbers
and conduct activities as usual, the Norwegian report read. Meanwhile, with
Russia’s strategic bombers focused on the invasion of Ukraine, Norway will likely see less of those
aircraft near its sovereign territory, the report stated.
In
October 2022, media reports cited satellite photos showing
seven Tu-160 and four Tu-95 aircraft at the Olenegorsk air base, about 100
miles from the border with Norway.
“Because
the importance of nuclear weapons and strategic deterrence forces is
increasing, the Northern Fleet’s defense of the military bases on Kola, the
northern bastion and the Barents Sea will also become more important,” the
agency wrote.
In
a Feb. 16 update to the report, the agency explained it does not foresee any
change in the way Russia is arming the Northern Fleet’s surface ships.
Luzin
noted that if Russia does kick off an effort to arm additional Northern Fleet
vessels with nuclear weapons, it would do so with the introduction of new
Borei-class and Yasen-class submarines, and with the battlecruiser Admiral
Nakhimov after it returns from repairs.
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