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Denne lange artikkelen trykker jeg i sin helhet på grunn av viktigheten av innholdet. (Red.)
Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Is More Than a Military
Operation — It’s a Political Strategy
By Frank A. Rose
June 22, 2026
Ukraine fired
hundreds of drones at St. Petersburg last week — the second attack on the city
and its surrounding region in less than seven days. According to press reports,
the strikes targeted oil depots and refineries across the Krasnodar region in
southern Russia, following an earlier attack on an oil terminal and naval base
near St. Petersburg — launched just miles from where Vladimir Putin was
hosting Russia's International Economic Forum, the
Kremlin's answer to Davos. On Friday, Putin told the assembled audience he had
rejected Ukrainian President Zelensky's request for a direct meeting.
The juxtaposition
was not accidental. It was the point.
These attacks tell
me two things — one operational, one strategic. Together they suggest that
Ukraine has developed a level of political-military sophistication that
deserves serious attention in Washington and every allied capital.
An Operational Transformation
First, the
operational reality. Ukraine has dramatically improved its offensive drone
strike capability — not just its defensive posture against Russian drones, but
its ability to reach deep inside Russian territory and hit targets of genuine
strategic value. The range, precision, and scale of these attacks represent a
qualitative leap from the early years of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are now
capable of conducting sustained, coordinated strikes against energy
infrastructure, naval installations, and industrial facilities hundreds of
miles from the front lines. The operational progress over the past year has
been remarkable by any measure.
This transformation
did not happen overnight. It reflects years of hard-won battlefield experience,
rapid innovation in drone design and production, and an intelligence and targeting
architecture that has grown steadily more sophisticated under wartime pressure.
Ukraine has become, by necessity, one of the world's most capable practitioners
of drone warfare — and the lessons it is generating are ones that the United
States and its allies urgently need to absorb.
A Clausewitzian Strategy
But the more
important insight is strategic, not operational. Ukraine has developed a
coherent and sophisticated political-military strategy — one that is deeply
Clausewitzian in its logic.
Carl von Clausewitz argued in his classic
book On War, that
war is the continuation of politics by other means — that military force is not
an end in itself, but an instrument for achieving political objectives. He also
identified the concept of the "center of gravity": the source of an
adversary's power and will, the hub around which everything else turns.
Effective strategy, in Clausewitz's framework, requires identifying and
targeting that center of gravity — imposing costs that erode the adversary's
capacity and willingness to continue the fight.
Ukraine's drone
campaign against St. Petersburg, the Krasnodar refineries,
and Russian energy infrastructure is a textbook application of that logic.
Ukraine is not targeting these assets because it expects to win the war through
economic disruption alone. It is targeting them because they matter to the
Putin regime and the Russian elites who sustain it — and because pain inflicted
on what those elites value most creates political pressure that battlefield
attrition alone cannot generate.
Striking an oil
terminal miles from the venue where Putin is hosting Russia's version of Davos
— while the Russian president is performing normalcy for an international
business audience — is not a coincidence. It is a message, delivered with
precision, at a moment of maximum political embarrassment. The timing is as
important as the target.
The Message Kyiv Is Sending
The message Ukraine
is sending to Moscow is unmistakable: end this war through negotiated
compromise or be prepared to absorb continued and escalating pain against the
political, military, and economic targets you value most. This is a strategy
designed not to defeat Russia militarily — Ukraine does not have that capacity
— but to change Putin's calculus. To make the cost of continuing the war higher
than the cost of ending it on terms Ukraine can accept.
That is a
sophisticated strategic concept. And it is one that Ukraine has arrived at
through four years of brutal, grinding conflict — not through academic theory,
but through operational necessity.
What Washington Should Take From This
For American
policymakers, the implications extend beyond Ukraine's immediate situation.
Several lessons deserve serious attention.
The first is that
asymmetric military capability, intelligently employed, can achieve strategic
effects that conventional force cannot. Ukraine is a smaller, poorer country
fighting a nuclear-armed great power. It cannot match Russia tank for tank or
missile for missile. But it can — and increasingly does — hold at risk the
things that matter most to Russian leadership. That is a model with broad
applicability.
The second is that
drone warfare has matured into a genuine instrument of strategic coercion — not
just a tactical tool. The ability to strike deep, strike precisely, and strike
repeatedly against high-value targets changes the strategic calculus in ways
that defense planners across NATO need to internalize. The United States and
its allies must develop both the offensive capabilities and the defensive
architectures to operate in this environment.
The third is that
political-military integration — the alignment of military action with
political objectives — remains the decisive variable. Ukraine's drone campaign
is effective not because the drones are technically impressive, but because
they are being used in service of a coherent political strategy. Military
capability in the absence of political strategy is just destruction. Ukraine is
demonstrating that the two, properly integrated, can be genuinely coercive.
The Question That Remains
Ukraine is fighting
to change Putin's calculus. The question — the only question that ultimately
matters — is whether he is listening.
The evidence so far
is mixed. Russia has absorbed significant economic pain from Ukrainian strikes
on its energy infrastructure. The political cost to the Putin regime of attacks
on St. Petersburg — a city of enormous symbolic importance — is real, even if
difficult to measure. The fact that Putin publicly rejected Zelensky's request
for a direct meeting while drones were striking facilities miles away suggests
a leader who is managing domestic optics as carefully as military operations.
But Ukraine's strategy
is not designed to produce an immediate result. It is designed to accumulate
pressure over time — to make the war progressively more costly for the people
whose support Putin needs to sustain it. Whether that pressure eventually
reaches a tipping point depends on factors — Russian elite cohesion, economic
resilience, Western support for Ukraine — that no one can predict with
confidence.
What can be said
with confidence is this: Ukraine has developed a political-military strategy
that is serious, sophisticated, and grounded in sound strategic logic. In a war
now well into its fifth year, which is no small achievement. Washington should
be paying close attention — not just to whether the strategy succeeds, but to
what it reveals about the future character of warfare in an era defined by
cheap, capable, and increasingly autonomous systems.






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