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“We’re much closer to a
supersonic business jet (SSBJ) being formally launched” as costs and
persistent risks related to regulatory, engines, and sonic boom noise are
“progressively mitigated,” according to aviation analyst Brian Foley. “The
final impetus will be from the realization that to command this relatively
small but high-value market requires being early to capture finite sales.”
One primary regulatory risk has
been defining what constitutes an acceptable sonic boom noise over land,
“which can be quite subjective,” he said. The FAA is currently re-examining
the supersonic flight over land ban, which Foley hopes will result in “much
needed guidance and design latitude” in the coming months.
Another challenge he cited is a
powerplant able to operate in the supersonic regime while still offering
reasonable times between maintenance overhauls. It also comes down to an
issue of money: “Who pays for the development of a new or derivative engine
that meets these unique performance and durability requirements?” he asked.
An SSBJ platform needs both a
civil and government market component to be successful, Foley noted. “Once
the race is on with teams formed and proper funding, the concept could leap
forward. While I now view a formal SSBJ launch as being more conceivable
than ever, it’s still moving at the very subsonic speed of technology,
regulation, and money.”
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