Ukraina - Sjøkrig har fått et helt nytt konsept å forholde seg til etter droneangrepene i Svartehavet - Stars and Stripes

Det er 15 år siden forsvarssjef Sverre Diesen skrev i sin Forsvarsstudie av 2007 at Norge ikke skulle befatte seg med droner. Vel, det var da, og tingene har gått i den retning Flyoperativt Forum spådde under vår konferanse i 2007, den første internasjonale dronekonferansen i Norge: Drone kan endre krigføring i fremtiden. (Red.)

Ukrainian drone attack could be precursor to new maritime fight in war with Russia

By 

ALISON BATH

STARS AND STRIPES • November 7, 2022

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The Russian frigate Admiral Makarov in the Mediterranean Sea in 2020. The Black Sea Fleet flagship and at least one other ship may have been significantly damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack, CNN reported Oct. 31, citing unidentified U.S. and Russian sources. (Russian Defense Ministry)

Ukraine’s recent attack in Crimea on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in port reveals glimpses of how the war with Moscow could develop if Kyiv makes a concerted push to retake the peninsula, naval analysts said.

The early morning drone offensive Oct. 29 also provides lessons for the U.S. Navy and its allies as they build future strategies for bases and shipyards, where billion-dollar assets will need protection from such attacks.

Details about the effectiveness of the aerial and surface strikes on ships in Sevastopol Bay remain under wraps, as do the defenses Russia employed against them.

But the frigate Admiral Makarov, which replaced the sunken Moskva as Black Sea Fleet flagship, and at least one other vessel may have been significantly damaged, CNN reported Oct. 31, citing unidentified U.S. and Russian sources.

The Ukrainians appear to be testing what works against the Russians, and success here could mean greater willingness to go on offense at sea, said Alessio Patalano, a senior lecturer in war studies at King’s College London.

The recent attack may come to represent “a fundamental shift in sea denial intended as a purely defensive measure” into a more active, attacking strategy of denying Russia effective use of the seas, Patalano said.

Sea denial wouldn’t give Ukraine maritime control but would hinder Russian reinforcement of the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

“For Crimea to go, the Russians cannot be feeling like they can move troops and assets around using the (backside) of that theater,” Patalano said.