China Likely To Beat NASA Back To The Moon
Chinese taikonauts will likely beat NASA astronauts back to the lunar
surface in as little as five to ten years, longtime lunar scientist and
geologist Paul Spudis now tells me. If so, that will happen primarily by
default, as the lunar surface continues to drop off NASA's crewed destination
radar.
Of course, that doesn't preclude Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA), or numerous commercial space ventures - who have all expressed a desire to return astronauts to the lunar surface - from getting there sooner. But for now, Spudis thinks the Chinese are most likely to next make it happen.
Spudis, author of the forthcoming, "The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources," emphasizes that he does not object to a "Chinese presence" on the lunar surface. Rather, he objects to the U.S.' long absence from the lunar surface and what he sees as "our abdication" of responsibility in creating a permanent American presence in cislunar space - the space between the Earth and the Moon. Such a presence, he argues, would guarantee unhindered access to both space commerce and resources available beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO).
A few into cislunar space. Earth and the Moon are nicely framed in this image taken from the aft windows of the Space Shuttle Discovery in 1998. Credit: NASA
Mars , cislunar space, even near-Earth asteroids have all been bandied about as new targets for NASA astronauts. But Spudis argues that it's our nearest celestial neighbor that is most valuable in unlocking the rest of the solar system to crewed exploration, as noted in "The Value of the Moon."
As for the likelihood that NASA will first return crews to the lunar surface before sending astronauts to Mars?
Spudis says based on current plans, he sees either possibility as extremely unlikely in the "foreseeable future."
Of course, that doesn't preclude Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA), or numerous commercial space ventures - who have all expressed a desire to return astronauts to the lunar surface - from getting there sooner. But for now, Spudis thinks the Chinese are most likely to next make it happen.
Spudis, author of the forthcoming, "The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources," emphasizes that he does not object to a "Chinese presence" on the lunar surface. Rather, he objects to the U.S.' long absence from the lunar surface and what he sees as "our abdication" of responsibility in creating a permanent American presence in cislunar space - the space between the Earth and the Moon. Such a presence, he argues, would guarantee unhindered access to both space commerce and resources available beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO).
A few into cislunar space. Earth and the Moon are nicely framed in this image taken from the aft windows of the Space Shuttle Discovery in 1998. Credit: NASA
Mars , cislunar space, even near-Earth asteroids have all been bandied about as new targets for NASA astronauts. But Spudis argues that it's our nearest celestial neighbor that is most valuable in unlocking the rest of the solar system to crewed exploration, as noted in "The Value of the Moon."
As for the likelihood that NASA will first return crews to the lunar surface before sending astronauts to Mars?
Spudis says based on current plans, he sees either possibility as extremely unlikely in the "foreseeable future."
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