MAX oppdatering - Curt Lewis

Boeing sees FAA approving software fix in May, Max ungrounding in July Boeing has told some 737 Max owners it is targeting FAA approval of its software fix as early as the third week of May, two sources told Reuters. The people also said aircraft manufacturer expects its Max 737 jets to be ungrounded around mid-July. But Boeing has not yet submitted its completed software package to the FAA for approval, two other sources said. An aerial photo shows Boeing 737 MAX airplanes parked on the tarmac at the Boeing Factory in Renton, Washington, U.S. March 21, 2019. Boeing has told some 737 MAX owners it is targeting U.S. Federal Aviation Administration approval of its software fix as early as the third week of May and the ungrounding of the aircraft around mid-July, two sources told Reuters. The dates are part of a provisional timeline that Boeing has shared in meetings with airline customers as it explains an upgrade to software that played a role in two fatal crashes and led to the worldwide grounding of its MAX 737 jetliner in March. However, Boeing has not yet submitted its completed software package to the FAA for approval, two other sources said. None of the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly, said they knew for sure how long the re-certification process will take. A Boeing spokeswoman said the company is focused on the safe return to service of the MAX and its engagement with global regulators and customers. Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg said last week the company had made the final test flight with the new MAX software before a final certification flight, indicating that the company believed it was making progress toward regulatory approval. On April 1, the FAA said that once it received Boeing's completed software package it would run a rigorous safety review before approving the software for installation. The agency also plans to work with other international regulators on MAX certification in their countries and regions before lifting the flying suspension in the United States, with Boeing prepared to address any concerns, one source said. Aside from the software certification, international regulators must also decide on new pilot training. This process is separate from an FAA-led international review panel, which the agency has said may not be completed before the MAX flying suspension is lifted. The two largest U.S. MAX owners, Southwest Airlines Co and American Airlines Group Inc, removed the aircraft from their flying schedules into August but have said they could use their MAX jets as spares if they are ungrounded sooner. United Airlines, with 14 MAX jets, said last week that it expected the aircraft to return to service this summer, with deliveries resuming before the end of the year. Boeing halted MAX deliveries to customers after the grounding in mid-March and said earlier this month that it would cut 737 production to 42 airplanes per month from 52. One industry source said that as of last week, Boeing planned to keep the lower production rate in place for two months, meaning it aims to resume a rate of 52 aircraft in July but the timeline could shift. Global airlines have had to cancel thousands of flights and use spare aircraft to cover routes that were previously flown with the fuel-efficient MAX. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/boeing-sees-faa-approving-software-fix-in-may-max-ungrounding-in-july.html Back to Top

Boeing Will Weather Storm, US Aircraft Output To Recover From 2020 Boeing 737 Max An employee walks down a stairway leading to a Boeing 737 MAX airplane in Renton, Washington, March 14, 2019. Photo: Stephen Brashear/Getty Images The U.S. aircraft industry will take a hit from the Boeing 737 MAX groundings and the subsequent production cuts at the company, causing the aircraft gross output to drop more than 5 percent in 2019, Stephen Foreman, senior economist at Oxford Economics said, adding that the industry will gradually recover in 2020 and 2021. The Boeing production cuts -- announced earlier this month -- will see production drop to 42 aircraft per month from 52 and are likely to last at least six months, he said. Foreman said the planemaker's dominance in the aerospace market will help it weather the storm. The U.S. aircraft, helicopter, drones, gliders sub-sector accounts for around half the headline U.S. aerospace products and parts output. The U.S. emerged as the biggest market for aerospace parts manufacturing in 2017. Foreman said the overall impact on the headline U.S. aerospace products and parts, and the commercial aerospace supply chain will be comparatively limited. "We forecast an output contraction of just 0.4 percent in the headline U.S. aerospace products and parts industry in 2019, with the fall in U.S. aircraft output being partly offset by limited aircraft parts production disruption and buoyant aerospace defense activity," he wrote. Boeing 737 MAX was the company's hottest selling model before regulators across the world grounded them following two crashes -- that of a Lion Air plane in October off the coast of Indonesia, and an Ethiopian Airlines plane in March outside Addis Ababa -- which killed a total of 346 people. Investigations into the two crashes have pointed to an error in a new anti-stall software in the jets, known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System or MCAS. The final reports on the crashes are not yet out but Boeing now is in a race against time to update the MCAS software and get regulatory approvals for it so the planes can fly again. While the Boeing cuts will act as a drag, limited parts disruption and buoyant missile and space growth will provide some relief for the industry, Foreman said. "We expect output growth in the guided missiles and space vehicles to remain robust over the next few years, driven by increased military spending by the Trump administration. The strength in 2019 reflects a surge in U.S. defense shipments so far this year, which have risen by 8 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2019," Foreman told International Business Times. He expects the annual inflation-adjusted gross output for guided missiles and space vehicles to rise to 7.7 percent in 2019, before cooling to 3.6 percent in 2020 and 3.2 percent in 2021. Foreman expects no visible effect on the U.S. GDP growth from the Boeing production cuts and does not foresee more than a 0.2 percentage point hit to the total manufacturing growth in 2019. He expects the U.S. aerospace parts and products industry to rebound in 2020 and 2021, with output growth of 3.5 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, as these temporary cuts unwind. "While some order cancellations may occur, strong demand for single-aisle aircraft, and limited alternative aircraft should shield this U.S. aerospace giant from a mass cancellation of orders," Foreman said. Strong passenger demand, especially with the approaching peak-summer season, and a lack of alternatives for single-aisle aircrafts could see a temporary increase in the airline load factor, he said. The alternatives to the Boeing 737's single-aisle jet are limited and can barely keep up with half of the market's current demand, he said. The Airbus A320neo -- the closest alternative single-aisle aircraft -- has an order backlog of nearly 6,000 aircraft, which could take several years to be delivered. "And while Airbus plans to increase the production of these single-aisle aircraft, this will be difficult given ongoing supply-chain constraints," Foreman said. The impact across the commercial aircraft supply-chain will be much smaller given longer lead times, Foreman said. "Some of Boeing's aircraft parts suppliers -- such as Spirit AeroSystems -- do not plan to reduce production. Longer lead times relative to Boeing make temporary production cut very difficult, though they may be forced to as rising inventories start to hurt their profit margins," he said. The temporary cuts could, however, benefit some suppliers who have struggled with ramping up production in the recent years, such as aircraft engine manufacturers, he added. The impact of the production disruption on sectors such as metals and machinery -- that supply materials and components to the aerospace sector -- will be moderate, given low exposure to aircraft demand. "For instance, while aluminum is a key metal in the manufacturing of an aircraft, U.S. aerospace accounts for just 1 percent of total U.S. aluminum purchases. The aluminum sector sells its output to many other manufacturers across the industry -- such as automotive, beverages and boilers -- limiting its overall vulnerability," Foreman explained. He said the electronics sector -- including the watch, clock, and other measuring and controlling device manufacturing -- is more vulnerable to production disruption. "But some electronics sectors may be provided with relief as Boeing works to fix the control system that caused the crash," he said. https://www.ibtimes.com/boeing-will-weather-storm-us-aircraft-output-recover-2020-2787586 Back to Top

'Passengers are afraid of this airplane': How Boeing is handling its 737 Max problem Jet's maker has a technical fix, now comes the hard part: getting passengers on board again The 737 Max is Boeing's fastest-selling aircraft ever, but the company hasn't taken any new orders since an Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max crashed minutes after take-off from Addis Ababa in March, killing all 157 people on board. (Matt Mills McKnight/Reuters) Boeing has made changes to its 737 Max airliner and conducted more than 100 test flights to show that apparent problems have been fixed in the wake of two deadly crashes. Convincing passengers will be much harder. "Passengers are afraid of this airplane," aviation industry analyst Henry Harteveldt says. "I haven't seen anything like this in decades, in terms of consumer fear and desire to avoid flying on the 737 Max." Little wonder, given all the media coverage showing that a system designed for safety may have been a factor in the crashes involving both Lion Air last October and Ethiopian Airlines in March. The airliners both struggled at low altitude, then plummeted nose-first into the ground while the pilots frantically tried to figure out why their aircraft weren't responding to the controls. 'It's our responsibility to eliminate this risk': Boeing responds to Ethiopian Airlines crash report Boeing anti-stall software engaged repeatedly before Ethiopian Airlines crash: sources Early reports from the crash investigations indicate the issue may have begun with an erroneous reading from the angle-of-attack indicator on the nose of the aircraft, falsely suggesting the plane was pointing upwards so sharply it was about to stall. That prompted the safety system, known as MCAS, to manoeuvre the horizontal stabilizer on the 737 Max's tail to force the plane's nose down. But in reality there was no stall imminent in either crash, and pointing the nose down, without the pilots being able to recover in time, may have led to the crashes. One of the sensors that measures the angle of attack can be seen in this image of the nose of a Boeing 737 Max 8. (Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) The MCAS software has been changed. A new training regime is ready for pilots. And the 737 Max could be given the green light to fly passengers sometime in the summer. But Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of the aircraft-manufacturing giant, knows the big job is still to come. "We'll do everything possible to earn and re-earn that trust and confidence from our airline customers and the flying public in the weeks and months ahead." The sell to passengers The question remains how the company will accomplish that. The Boeing 737 has been a popular workhorse for airlines around the world. But after the second crash of the revamped Max model, a poll conducted by Business Insider suggested 53 per cent of American adults never want to fly on a 737 Max, even once it's deemed safe to do so. Boeing was dealt a further blow over the weekend when the New York Times warned of concerns at a factory producing Boeing's other crown jewel, the 787 Dreamliner. Past and current employees tell the Times they warned both the manufacturer and the regulator of sloppy work habits, such as debris sealed inside airframes that could lead to a disaster in flight. Boeing stands by the wide-body jet. To address the concerns of the flying public, Boeing is going to need to speak directly to the skeptical - something it has no history of doing. It sells planes to airlines, but never markets directly to passengers. A Lion Air Boeing 737 Max 8 is parked at Soekarno Hatta International airport near Jakarta, Indonesia, on March 15. Lion Air flight 610 crashed soon after taking off from the same airport on Oct. 29, 2018, killing all 189 aboard. (Willy Kurniawan/Reuters) "Boeing is going to have to be hyper-transparent, unlike anything it's ever been in the past in terms of what the fixes are," Herteveldt says. Boeing records zero new Max orders following global groundings Boeing to reduce production rate of troubled 737 Max jets He predicts a multimillion-dollar campaign through both traditional and social media. "It's bringing journalists and analysts and influencers into Boeing and doing something Boeing doesn't normally let people do from the outside - film, take them on test flights, let them interview Boeing engineers and test pilots." The sell to airlines Passengers are just part of the equation - there are also the carriers. In its perpetual battle for market supremacy with rival Airbus, Boeing raced to develop the 737 Max to offer airlines a more fuel-efficient version of its ever-popular 737 line. It worked. The Max became Boeing's fastest-selling aircraft ever. There are more than 300 already in service and about 5,000 more on order. But since the Ethiopian Airlines crash, Boeing hasn't sold a single one. And the list of orders may get shorter as skittish airlines back away or cancel their purchases. A row of grounded Boeing 737 MAX airplanes at Boeing Field in Seattle, Wash., on March 21. (Lindsey Wasson/Reuters) The world of selling planes can be complicated, but some expect the American manufacturing giant is likely to use the same simple approach as any retailer with a poorly selling product: drop the price. The company is not going to give the airplane away, but "Boeing will negotiate," says Harteveldt, "and I think very aggressively." It helps that North America's sixth-largest carrier, Alaska Airlines, is shopping. It had already ordered eight of the aircraft, and reportedly may still add dozens more. An anchor order from such a recognizable name could help restore confidence in the brand. Meanwhile, with sales stagnant, Boeing is trying to restore confidence in preparation for the resumption of 737 Max flights, expected later this year. Existing customers such as Westjet and Air Canada are being run through simulations of the changes to the 737 Max at Boeing's Seattle-area headquarters, and are also being included in design plans for a new pilot training regime. Convincing Congress Boeing is too big to fail, with an extensive product line extending well beyond commercial aviation. The 737 Max mess will hit the company's bottom line this year, but Boeing is in no danger of disappearing. But things will be different. The U.S. Federal Aviation Authority has the final say on when the plane will be ready to fly again. It's the same regulator that gave the 737 Max approval as a new product several years ago, but at that time nearly all the testing of the aircraft was done by Boeing engineers and pilots, not independently by FAA officials. Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, left, and U.S. Republican Paul Ryan walk past a Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engine for a 787 jet in 2017 at the Boeing factory in Everett, Wash. (Elaine Thompson/Associated Press) For years, the airline industry has pushed not so much for less regulation, but for the delegation of that regulation to the manufacturers themselves. The two 737 Max crashes are prompting questions about whether that was a good idea. "It is clear, just based on public sentiment, that there is an expectation that the FAA have a more direct role," says Peter Lemme, a former Boeing engineer, "and perhaps they've overextended their delegation at this time." American Airlines cancels Boeing 737 Max flights through mid-August More families Lion Air victims set to sue Boeing Ironically, the FAA's man in charge of this 737 Max file was himself an ardent proponent of that delegation. Ali Bahrami is now the FAA's Association Administrator for Aviation Safety. But six years ago Bahrami worked for the aircraft manufacturers lobby, and he argued before Congress to fight foreign competition by delegating more regulatory authority to the plane-makers to help them get new products to market faster. Ali Bahrami, left, now Association Administrator for Aviation Safety at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), testifies during a hearing at the National Transportation Safety Board in Washington, D.C., on April 23, 2013. (Jonathan Ernst/Bloomberg via Getty Images) "We urge the FAA to allow maximum use of delegation," Bahrami told Congress in 2013. "It would be detrimental to our competitiveness if foreign manufacturers are able to move improved products into the marketplace more quickly." Now he'll be the one to sign off on the Max's return to the skies. Lemme says he expects Congress and others to nudge the FAA to rein-in some of the regulatory control that was handed over to companies like Boeing. "There was a balance that I think shifted unacceptably," he says.