Russisk rulett - The Economist

 

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Is Vladimir Putin about to invade Ukraine or is he bluffing, to extort concessions from his neighbour and the West? No one can be sure. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing. If fighting starts, Mr Putin could order a full-scale invasion, with Russian forces thrusting deep into Ukraine to seize the capital, Kyiv, and overthrow the government. Or he may seek to annex more territory in eastern Ukraine, carving out a corridor linking Russia with Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Mr Putin grabbed in 2014. Then again, he may want a small war, in which Russia “saves” Kremlin-backed separatists in Donbas, an eastern region of Ukraine, from supposed Ukrainian atrocities. Because Mr Putin has the initiative, it is easy to conclude he has the advantage. In fact, he faces perilous choices. A big war entails extraordinary risks. But a smaller war that limits these risks may fail to halt Ukraine’s Westward drift. And if a small war does not bring the capitulation of the government in Kyiv, Mr Putin may find that Russia is ineluctably drawn into a larger one. Seldom has the difference between a country’s interests and those of its leader been so stark.