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Ukraine faces logistics
hurdles ahead of tank deliveries
By
LOVEDAY MORRIS, EMILY
RAUHALA, DAN LAMOTHE, DAVID STERN
THE WASHINGTON POST • January 27,
2023
A German army Leopard 2 tank during an exercise in
Hohenfels, Germany, in 2012. (Markus Rauchenberger)
BERLIN — Nearly a year into the war in Ukraine,
Western allies finally agreed to send Kyiv the battle tanks it says it so
desperately needs.
The first battalion will have roughly 40 tanks,
including newer German Leopard 2A6s, and could arrive by spring.
But the broader package pieced together this week
by the United States and other European nations includes a hodgepodge of tank
models, each with different delivery times and unique logistical hurdles.
Military experts are unsure if they will have a decisive effect on the
battlefield — and Ukrainian forces still need to be trained on how to use them.
Ukraine has said that it needs at least 300 tanks
to support a large-scale spring offensive against the Russians and has called
the Western move to donate them a game changer. On Thursday, in apparent
retaliation for the tank pledges a day earlier, Russia bombarded Ukrainian
towns and cities with dozens of missiles, killing at least 11 people, officials
said.
“No single weapons system or platform can be a
game changer,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the London-based
International Institute for Strategic Studies. He said that the impact of the
“limited number” of tanks arriving in March will depend on training and how
well the new formations are integrated on the front line.
But because Germany waited so long to decide
whether to send tanks, “it is unlikely that the Leopard 2 will play a
significant role in any spring offensive,” he said.
Moscow on Thursday slammed the deliveries as an
“escalation.”
Still, the Ukrainians are now expecting a planned
transfer of 14 Challenger 2 tanks from Britain, as well as an eventual delivery
of 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States. The M1A2 is a variant first
fielded in the 1990s. It includes more modern electronics and targeting systems
than its older cousin, the M1A1, and a 120 mm main cannon.
European countries are also dusting off
decades-old stocks. Spain has mulled sending a batch of older Leopard 2A4s that
have been mothballed for a decade and may need extensive repairs. Germany is
rushing ahead with the newer A6 variant, with thermal imaging and a
significantly more powerful high-velocity gun.
It is all valuable firepower as Ukraine stands
against Russian forces, but with the additional complications of procuring
ammunition, training capable forces, and organizing logistics for multiple
weapons systems. Germany, Poland, and the United States are all planning
separate tank training programs, with Germany and Poland set to begin theirs in
days as they rush deliveries for spring.
The mishmash of different systems makes it “quite
difficult from the logistical point,” said Sonny Butterworth, a tank expert
with the defense intelligence firm Janes.
British Challenger 2s use different ammunition
from the NATO standard. And when it comes to the Leopard 2s, there are subtle
differences between the stocks held by each European country — even if they are
the same model. A Spanish Leopard A4 may have a different fire control or radio
system from a Finnish one, though they are essentially interoperable, experts
say.
“The Ukrainians are going to be operating several
different types of equipment and they are going to have to contend with having
to support them with the right spare parts going to the right units,”
Butterworth said.
Ukraine relies on old Soviet T-72 battle tanks and
might feel it just needs the hardware to fight back against Russia and keep up
the tempo on the battlefield, he said. But in the long term, operating multiple
types of tanks could create bigger logistical snags.
The U.S. decision to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine
— although not for months — eliminates a powerful weapon
for Ukrainian forces in the short term. But it was also one that could have
caused disarray without the proper logistical support and maintenance, experts
say.
One
U.S. official aware of the deliberations behind the decision said that while
Ukrainian forces have shown a considerable ability to maintain and sustain U.S.
equipment on the battlefield, operating Abrams tanks requires significant
preparation, including training that will take place outside Ukraine.
“We are confident that we will be able to provide the
adequate sustainment and maintenance support after some months,” the official
said, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the
Biden administration.
Poland, which neighbors Ukraine, is also building up
its own supply of M1 Abrams and could facilitate logistics and maintenance
support, experts say.
One major complicating factor is the depleted uranium
used in the armor packages specific to U.S. military versions of the tank. The
armor includes classified aspects that the United States does not typically
export, said one person familiar with the issue, speaking on the condition of
anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
It remained unclear Thursday where U.S. troops might
train Ukrainian forces on the tank. One possibility was the Grafenwoehr
Training Area in Germany, a sprawling facility in the Bavarian countryside
where U.S. troops began training a battalion of more than 600 Ukrainian forces
this month on how to combine artillery, armored vehicles and other weapons to
maximize their impact on the battlefield.
During a first visit to troops on Thursday, Germany’s
new Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, pushed back at claims that the tank
deliveries were insufficient or that German delays may have lost vital time.
“We didn’t hesitate, we negotiated,” he said. “We
talked to our allies and our partners and friends.”
As
the manufacturer of the Leopard tank, Berlin’s go-ahead is needed for
deliveries from any of the more than a dozen countries that operate it, but it
insisted that it would not “go it alone.”
Yuri Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry,
said the Russians are so entrenched in the territories they occupy, “that for
us to be able to advance with our counteroffensive means battle tanks are key.”
So far, Ukraine has relied on old Soviet T-72 tanks,
which run low on ammunition in conflicts in which heavy artillery dominates.
The new tanks will open the door to platforms that support ammunition that can
be replenished by allies in what has become a war of attrition.
“In order to get three hundred [tanks], you have to
work hard,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and
defense council. “Everyone involved works every day, so that the number
increases,” he said.
But it was important to have “a beginning,” he said.
“It’s like the first step. It’s like permission.”
The Washington Post’s Rauhala reported from Brussels, Lamothe from
Washington and Stern from Kyiv. Vanessa Guinan-Bank in Berlin and Beatriz Ríos
in Brussels contributed to this report.
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