44,500 New Aircraft to Be Delivered
Over the Next Two Decades, Worth US$2.9 Trillion
·
Estimated
global aircraft deliveries to meet forecasted annual 3.6% passenger traffic
growth, and replace aging and inefficient models currently in service
·
Single-aisle
jets expected to account for 70% of passenger aircraft deliveries to 2041
·
Chinese
passenger fleet is forecast to grow by 4.5%, the highest annual rate, reaching
19% of global deliveries
·
88% of
the current passenger fleet retired from passenger service by 2041
·
Over
3,650 freighters predicted to be supplied over the next 20 years
January 24, 2023
03:00 AM Eastern Standard Time
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The
new Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals demand for approximately 44,500 new aircraft
globally over the next two decades, worth US$2.9 trillion.
“These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but
also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”
The forecast published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of
aviation analytics firm Cirium, is an independent outlook of the global
passenger and freighter market for the next 20 years.
It reaffirms an encouraging long-term projection for the aviation
industry and its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, predicting that 20-year
aircraft deliveries will be 1% lower globally than predicted a year ago.
This comes despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, travel restrictions in
China, and rising energy costs all emerging as influential factors during 2022.
The aviation industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 crisis in early
2020, has progressed significantly if unevenly across regions. Global aviation
activity is predicted to reach 2019 levels in October.
Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s Global Head of Consultancy, said: “The
new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation. The
industry is undergoing structural changes but remains on course to return to
traditional growth paths by 2025.”
“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around
22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6%
annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041.
“These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but
also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”
Asia will account for over 40% of new deliveries
Asia-Pacific remains the key growth region for new deliveries, driven
by China. The country is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic
growth rate at over 6% and account for 19% of deliveries in 2041, ahead of all
other Asia-Pacific countries, with a combined share of 22%.
North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21%
and 17% of deliveries respectively. Middle East airlines will take 7% of
deliveries, accounting for 14% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher
value twin-aisle deliveries.
In the forecast, Russian capacity and traffic are assumed to decline in
the near term. Combined with the complete cessation of Ukrainian civil aviation
activity, Russia/CIS traffic is then forecast to stabilize at 70% of 2019
levels in 2024.
Demand for single-aisles will drive fleet growth
At the end of November 2022, the single-aisle fleet was within 2% of
2019 levels, but twin-aisle aircraft numbers were still down by 20%. The
single-aisle fleet will grow faster by 3.7% annually, against 3.2% for
twin-aisles as the recovery of long-haul traffic continues to lag. The regional
aircraft fleet will rise more modestly, by 1.1% a year, with the turboprop
fleet set to grow at a faster rate within the regional sector.
Forecast traffic growth over the long term will require the global
passenger fleet to increase by around 22,000 aircraft, which equates to a 3.1%
annual growth rate, taking the inventory to some 47,700 aircraft at the end of
2041.
The in-service passenger fleet is not forecast to return to 2019 levels
until mid-2023, thus effectively losing up to four years of ‘normal’ fleet
growth.
Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs,
delivering an estimated 80% of aircraft between them and 88% by value through
2041. However, there is US$360 billion of demand for other OEMs or new
programs.
The pressures to replace older, less-efficient types will increase
Close to 88% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired
from passenger service during the next 20 years. Freighters have longer useful
economic lives, so approximately 70% of the current fleet will be retired by
2041.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2021
passenger fleet, plus a further 2,500 aircraft that leave the passenger fleet
via cargo conversion.
As pressure to switch to more environmentally friendly aircraft grows,
replacing less efficient older-generation types will be an increasingly
important element of fleet planning. The Covid-19 crisis has seen relatively
young aircraft being phased out, while those of older vintages may remain in
storage until eventual scrapping.
The freighter boom continues, but may not persist
Freight capacity (available tonne kilometres or ATKs) is forecast to
grow annually at 3.0% and traffic (FTKs) at 3.7%, relative to 2019. The
forecast predicts the supply of some 3,560 freighter aircraft over the next 20
years, including 1,060 new builds (30%) worth US$130 billion, and 2,480
conversions of passenger aircraft (70%).
This is a similar volume and profile to that predicted in the previous
forecast, reflecting the continued near-term boom in conversions triggered by
the air-cargo market dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic, including a short-term
drop in passenger belly capacity, e-commerce growth and rising feedstock
availability. Although the current conversion boom may not persist, it is
enabling the replacement of older, less efficient aircraft.
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