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New claims add to confusion around May’s India-Pakistan conflict

Technology is supposed to bring clarity to air warfare, but the fog of war is alive and well.

Three months after the fateful clash in early May when Indian and Pakistani fighters staged a major air battle, details about the air component of that four-day conflict have become even murkier.

Source: Pakistan air force

Clear winner: May’s clash boosted the reputation of the J-10C

By most accounts Indian airpower had a difficult time, with various sources stating that up to five aircraft were lost – including three Dassault Aviation Rafales – to Pakistan air force Chengdu J-10Cs firing PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles.

India subsequently rallied, hitting Pakistani bases with long-range munitions. Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles launched by Sukhoi Su-30MKIs were apparently very successful.

Now the waters – or skies, rather – have become murkier still, with India’s chief of the air staff Air Chief Marshal AP Singh now claiming that India shot down six Pakistani aircraft, apparently with surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).

He claims that five fighters were confirmed as ‘kills’, as well as a single “large aircraft”, possibly an airborne early warning and control or electronic intelligence platform. The large aircraft was apparently hit at a range of 162nm (300km) by India’s Russian-supplied S-400 system.

He adds that the air-defence system was particularly effective at hitting Pakistani fighters before they could launch glide bombs, noting: “The S-400 system, which we had recently bought, has been a game changer.”

Singh based his assessment on electronic tracking during the conflict.

Pakistan, predictably, has vehemently denied Singh’s remarks, stating that not even one of its aircraft had been hit, let alone shot down.

For outside observers, it is all but impossible to obtain a clear, accurate picture of what happened in the skies of the subcontinent during those fateful days and nights.

The engagements appear to have been conducted at extreme ranges, with electronic warfare (EW) and deception having played a major role. It is also probable that both countries used decoys, and cyberwarfare is likely to have played a role.

This all adds up to a very confusing picture. Indeed, it is unlikely that intelligence officers on either side can accurately state exactly how things played out in the air – though they can certainly count (but not talk about) the number of jets that did, or did not return home.

The truth of what happened in early May is only likely to come out in future years if mission reports from both sides are declassified. Even then, analysts will be faced with reports – some of which are bound to conflict – from participants ranging from senior leaders, individual pilots, SAM battery commanders, and those involved in the dark arts of cyber and EW.

This, unfortunately, is not likely to happen anytime soon given the tense security situation between Islamabad and New Delhi. Air forces the world over are trying to find lessons from the conflict, but a lack of clarity will make it hard to draw clear lessons.

FlightGlobal’s recent coverage, meanwhile, continues our mission to bring clarity to the complex world of defence aerospace.

Although firm details about the India-Pakistan clash are lacking, we shed light on the serious procurement challenges facing the Indian air force as its rivals add fifth-generation fighters.