Voldsom økning i antall omkomne - Curt Lewis

After 900% Increase In 2018, Airline Fatalities Rising Again


This image taken from a video distributed by Russian Investigative Committee on Sunday, May 5, 2019, shows the Sukhoi SSJ100 aircraft of Aeroflot Airlines on fire, at Sheremetyevo airport, outside Moscow, Russia. At least 40 people died when an Aeroflot airliner burst into flames while making an emergency landing at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport. (The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation via AP) Photocredit: ASSOCIATED PRESS

In 2017, there were a total of 59 deaths attributed to airline accidents. In 2018, there were 561. When I did the math, I was taken aback; deaths attributed to airline accidents had jumped 900% year-over-year. And if present trends are not reversed, it appears that airline deaths will rise further in 2019.

While the absolute number of deaths wasn't particularly high in 2018 (equivalent to a single A380 jumbo jet crashing, which thankfully, didn't happen) the percentage increase over the previous year was startling. Experts called 2017 an exceptionally safe year, while 2018 was "only average" in terms of safety. So perhaps the increase can be discounted somewhat---unless fatalities continue to rise.

Unfortunately, that appears to be happening. In 2018, there were 18 jetliner accidents with a total of 561 fatalities. As of May 7, 2019, just a third through the year, there have already been 6 deadly jetliner accidents with 231 fatalities. That projects to nearly 700 airline deaths and would put 2019 on course to become the deadliest year in the last five.

The Aviation Safety Network has a figure it calls the "safety indicator" based on fatal accidents "involving commercial (passenger or cargo) flights of aircraft of which the basic model has been certified for carrying 14 or more passengers." With six accidents and 231 fatalities in 2019, the numbers are considerably higher than the five-year average of four accidents and 149 deaths.

About three-quarters of the fatalities in 2019 occurred on March 10, when an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashed, killing all 157 people on board. This was the second 737 MAX crash within six months. It resulted in the aircraft being pulled from airline service around the world while the cause was investigated and addressed.

The accident with the second-highest number of fatalities occurred this week, on May 5, when a Sukhoi Superjet 100-95B operated by Aeroflot caught fire on landing at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport. The accident killed 41 of its passengers and crew.

Another significant aircraft accident this year was the January crash of an aging Boeing 707 jetliner (built in 1976) in Iran, killing 14. This follows an even deadlier Iranian accident in 2018. That crash, of an ATR 72-212, killed 66, while another 2018 accident involving a Canadair Challenger 604 killed 11. Sanctions imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program have reportedly resulted in Iran's inability to buy new aircraft or spare parts. Iran Air CEO Farzaneh Sharafbafi claims that the condition of Iran's civil aviation industry is now worse than that of Afghanistan or Iraq as a result of U.S. sanctions. The FAA published an advisory last fall about risks of operating in Iranian airspace. These include potential encounters with Russian cruise missiles flying to Syria, Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and GPS jammers.

Another significant 2019 crash was that of an even older craft, a DC-3 (built 1945) flying in Colombia. The pilots reported engine trouble before crashing with the loss of all fourteen passengers and crew. While accidents involving the DC-3, perhaps the most popular airliner/transport ever built, are hardly unknown (this was the 1750th fatal accident involving the type), it does raise questions about inspections and maintenance.

Although it's been reported that a possible lightning strike may have set an engine on fire, similar questions may be asked about the recent Russian tragedy involving Sukhoi's troubled Superjet.

American authorities are not immune to criticism either. The US FAA was the last world agency or airline to order the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX. Both the agency and the aircraft manufacturer have been criticized for allowing Boeing to "self-certify" its own aircraft.

Another troubling note for 2019 air safety is that barely a third through the year, there have been no less than six crashes involving various Boeing 737 models. On May 3, there was a "runway excursion" (a veer off or overrun off the runway surface) involving a charter 737-800 flying from Guantanamo in Cuba to Jacksonville Naval Station in Florida. "The airplane came to rest in the shallow waters of St. Johns River, sustaining substantial damage," but amazingly, all 143 of its passengers and crew survived.

Aviation safety can't depend on such luck continuing. As an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety report noted in 2017, "Each Member State should establish and implement an effective safety oversight system addressing all areas of aviation activities that reflects the shared responsibility of States and the broader aviation community."

There is no place for complacency when it comes to airline safety. The airline industry and its regulators must take an active approach towards the goal that "safety is everyone's business." Otherwise, airline crashes and fatalities will only continue to rise.