The flying public may not be so interested in it—yet—but pilotless commercial airplanes could be a boon to the aerospace industry and some financial analysts see a natural evolution in that direction coming.
“Meaningful savings can be generated via mission optimization, greater predictability and reduced flight crew and training costs,” a new report from UBS aerospace, airlines and logistics sector analysts. “Younger (18-34) and more educated respondents were found to be more willing to fly on a pilotless plane. This bodes well for the technology as the population ages.”
The analysts see a potential profit opportunity worth about $35 billion for the aviation and aerospace manufacturing sectors. That includes:
  • More than $26 billion in pilot cost savings for the airlines that UBS covers.
  • Up to $3 billion in similar savings for the business jet industry.
  • $2.1 billion for civil helicopters.
  • Fight optimization savings of more than $1 billion, or 1% of carriers’ $133 billion fuel bill globally in 2016.
  • More than $3 billion per year in savings from lower insurance premiums (safer flights) and pilot training costs.
  • Revenue increases from increased utilization rates (cargo and commercial).
“We believe the biggest potential beneficiaries among suppliers would be those exposed to avionics and communications: Thales, Rockwell Collins and Honeywell,” UBS said. But original equipment manufacturers (OEM), airlines and others also would benefit, of course.
“With increased technology breakthroughs and lower costs, Airbus and Boeing could increase the appeal of their future aircraft programs,” UBS continued. And, assuming commercial airlines retain all of the profit uplift from pilotless airplanes, those that could see the greatest pretax earnings boost are: Thai Airways (about 90%); China Eastern(80%); American Airlines (200%); United Airlines (100%); EasyJet (60%); and Air France-KLM (50%).
Cargo carriers FedEx and UPS also could see a potential boost of $1 billion. Analysts said they expect cargo carriers to be on the forefront of adoption.
Technically, remotely controlled aircraft for carrying passengers and cargo could appear by around 2025, UBS surmised. But analysts admit it would take heavy lifting in rewriting regulations, and an even greater turn in consumer sentiment. UBS surveyed around 8,000 people and found 54% were unlikely to take such a flight. Just 17% said they would so. By nationality, French and German respondents were the most unlikely to take a pilotless flight.
Still, those aged 18-34 were found to be more willing to fly on a pilotless airplane, around 30% of polled, so UBS concludes acceptance should grow with time.
The analysts also see industry already moving in that direction, at least to cut down pilot workload in the face of a dwindling traditional pilot pipeline. “Last week, Boeing announced that it would step into avionics to make aircraft controls and electronics, underpinning our view on that market’s appeal,” UBS said.
Meanwhile, Boeing reportedly is getting ready to test pilotless technology next year, with artificial intelligence making some decisions. At the same time, Airbus has three initiatives revolving around urban air mobility—the Vahana, CityAirbus and Skyways projects—as well as testing its Sagitta unmanned jet.