Is Putin Responsible For MH17? Five Questions For Investigators On Russian Culpability
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The Kremlin churning out MH17 conspiracy theories reminds me of a shyster lawyer defending a guilty murderer by deliberately planting seeds of doubt in the minds of jurors. The goal of Putin’s propaganda is the same: to suggest a one percent probability that someone other than Kremlin terrorists brought down the plane.
No matter how much smoke Kremlin PR specialists blow, they cannot deny the following facts concerning the MH17 crash at around 4:30 pm on July 17 over the east Ukrainian town of Snizhne:
First, separatist forces, hammered by Ukraine’s control of the air over Donetsk and Luhansk, were in desperate need of surface-to-air missiles to stem the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation. According to state department intelligence, tanks, armored personnel carriers and missile launchers crossed into Ukraine in large numbers starting around June 30. (Even after the MH17 disaster, Russia continues to send in heavy military equipment.)
Second, separatist forces shot down ten Ukrainian aircraft over rebel held territory, including planes flying at altitudes beyond the range of shoulder-held missiles (MANPADS). The missiles were so effective that Ukrainian forces had to halt flights over the region. On July 17, Ukrainian aircraft operating in the eastern zone were grounded.
Third, Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down late afternoon on July 17 by a SAM missile launched near the site that downed a Ukrainian AN-26 at 21,000 feet three days earlier – again above the range of shoulder-fired missiles.
Fourth, U.S. radar and space-based assets detected a surface-to-air missile launch seconds before MH17 was hit from same occupied area near the town of Snizhne.
Fifth, within 15 minutes of the disappearance of MH17, the commander of separatist forces, Colonel Igor Strelkov, boasted on social media that his forces had blown another Ukrainian aircraft from “his” skies. Shortly after this posting, the announcement was removed from Strelkov’s site.
Sixth, the commander of the rebel Vostok Battalion, Aleksandr Khodakovsky, acknowledged to Reuters reporters that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and that it was sent back to Russia to remove evidence from Ukrainian soil. The commander retracted his statement after the Russian head of the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk issued his own denial (and also denied receiving any weapons from Russia), but the cat was already out of the bag.
These facts will be confirmed by the international investigation. They are more than sufficient to prove that separatist forces shot down MH17. Russian propaganda must disprove these six facts, and it cannot. The only option is to spin fantasy stories (Putin’s plane was the target, MH17 was full of dead bodies) that appeal to the kook fringe of conspiracy theorists.
The main task of the international investigation, which Vladimir Putin purports to support, will be to determine Russian culpability in the downing of MH17. The obvious fact that the flight was downed by rebel forces is of lesser importance.
The investigation should begin with the interrogations of separatists and Russian officers, whose conversations before and after the crash were intercepted and released by Ukrainian intelligence. They give the names, locations, and telephone numbers of the talkers and the times and locations of the conversation. The content of these conversations goes a long way in determining Russian culpability, contrary to Putin’s claim that Russia has nothing to do with the conflict.
Russian propaganda dismisses these taped conversations as forgeries, hastily contrived by Ukrainian intelligence after the catastrophe. But this is what international investigations are for. Investigators can interview Ukrainian intelligence agents who taped the calls. They can use the latest technology to test their authenticity. Most important, they can interrogate the separatist and Russian agents who took part in the disputed intercepted conversations.
I have summarized the contents of the intercepted calls in Intercepted Transcripts Indicating Russian Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH17 and Russian Separatists Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH17. My If Putin ‘Mans Up,’ His Regime Will Crumble included a You Tube of conversations between Khodakovsky (the commander of the rebel Azov Battalion), which has been removed but is available in other outlets.
If these voice recordings are authenticated by the investigators, they will give the investigation key leads in answering the key questions of who did what and when they did it.
Russian culpability hinges on the answers to six questions:
First question: How, when, and from where were the BUKs delivered to separatist rebels in east Ukraine?
Investigators should interrogate Oleg Bugrov, chief of staff of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Luhansk about his July 14 conversation with “Oreon,” a Russian military intelligence officer, focusing on his statement “Now we have BUKs, we can bring planes down.”
Interrogate Sergei Khmury, deputy chief of Igor Strelkov, commander of rebel forces of the so-called People’s republic of Donetsk, about his July 17 conversation with “Botsman,” of Russian military intelligence and rebel activist “Buryat” stating, “Thank God, BUK-M arrived today in the morning” and that “it had crossed the line” (meaning border).
Importance: Russia and the separatist forces deny that rebels had BUKs, or that, if they did, they were captured from Ukrainian forces. These conversations talk about BUKs crossing a border, not about BUKs stolen from Ukraine. Russia supplied its rebels with the BUK that brought down MH17.
Second question: Did crews accompany the BUKs or were rebel experts trained? If so, where?
Interrogate Khmury about his July 17 conversation with “Buryat” in which “Buryat” informs him that the BUK arrived with a crew.
Importance: BUK missile systems require a minimum of several weeks of training, which could only be supplied by the Russian military. If crews accompanied the BUKs, they were likely assembled by the Russian military or trained by military training centers, presumed to be located near Rostov.
Third question: What was the chain of command for positioning and launching BUKs missiles?
Interrogate Khmury about his separate July 17 conversations with “Buryat” and “Sanych” about hiding the BUK, putting the BUK in a column with tanks, and hiding it behind “motel.” There are also other instructions about where the BUKs should be located or whether they should be hidden.
Interrogate Ukrainian intelligence on its claim that it has evidence that a “Russian officer pulled the trigger on MH17.” This would be a key piece of evidence of direct Russian involvement, and it is up to the Ukraine side to back it with verifiable evidence.
Importance: These communications suggest that the top leadership of the separatists were in the loop on the inventory of BUKs and were in charge of their positioning. If a Russian officer pulled the trigger, this suggests that the Kremlin did not place such dangerous equipment in the hands of raw terrorists but kept control itself. This is a question of vital significance.
Fourth question: After the crash, who did the rebels inform?
Interrogate Igor Strelkov (real name Girkin), the self-appointed commander of the People’s Republic of Donetsk, about his social media posting a few minutes after crash about the shooting down of a transport plane: “This will teach them not to fly in our skies.” Ask Strelkov why he removed the announcement a few minutes later.
Interrogate Igor Bezler (alias Demon) about his conversation with Russian military intelligence colonel, Vasily Geranin, informing him that a plane had been downed some fifteen minutes earlier.
Interrogate “Major” reporting to “Grek” that the plane had been destroyed by their Cossacks launching from a checkpoint, that the plane was a civilian aircraft, and the scene was a “sea of bodies.”
Importance: These communications suggest that Moscow was informed almost immediately about the crash and must have know immediately that MH17 was shot down by its own rebels. Putin would have known immediately.
Fifth question: Did the rebels decide themselves to keep international observers from the crash site or were they ordered by higher authorities to do so?
Interrogate the commander of the Azov battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, cell phone number 380506456469, about his conversations with Oleksij and Andrij working at the crash scene on July 18, starting at 5:53 pm, in which he instructs separatists to gather and hide wreckage, to give evidence only to Strelkov’s or Khmury’s people, to find and hide the black boxes, and that “high-level people in Moscow are very interested in this being done.”
Importance: The sabotage of the investigation was ordered by the highest levels of the separatist forces and seemed to be ordered by Moscow, despite Putin’s claim of complete cooperation. (Another Putin lie?)
Sixth question: Where is the BUK system that fired the missile now and how did it get there?
Interrogate Khodakovsky about his statement that the BUK that shot down MH17 has been removed to Russia to hide the evidence.
Interrogate Ukrainian intelligence officers about their information that the BUK crossed the Ukrainian border into Russia in the early morning hours following the shooting down of MH17.
Importance: The surreptitious removal of the most important piece of evidence from Ukraine was designed to hamper the investigation and shows that Putin has no intention of real cooperation with the investigation.
Pan Am 101 was destroyed by a bomb over Lockerbie Scotland in December of 1988. Arrest warrants were issued for two Libyan nationals in 1991. In 2003, Mohammar Khadaffi agreed to pay compensation to the victims’ families in return for dropping UN sanctions. The case was broken based upon fragments of textiles found in the wreckage.
The solving of MH17 is a piece of cake compared to Pan Am 101. Although the crash site was intentionally corrupted by separatists, plenty of evidence of a missile must remain. There are satellite images of the missile launch, and investigators have intercepted phone calls among those persons likely responsible for the catastrophe.
We would expect that the investigation will lead to a clear verdict, which will be disputed by the Russian side. Also, insofar as the missile launch took place in what has been declared by the Red Cross as a war zone, we would expect war crime indictments from the Den Haag tribunal of responsible persons, such as Strelkov, Bezler, Khmury, Khodakovsky, and others. If the investigation shows that the Russian military supplied the weapons that caused the crash, there could also be indictments of high-level Russian military officers, up to the defense minister. As a sponsor of terrorism, the Russian state would be responsible for compensating the victims’ families.
Can the world community hold Vladimir Putin responsible for MH17? Putin himself blames Ukraine for creating the conditions under which such a tragedy could occur. According to Putin, Ukraine is at fault for not capitulating to his demands. This argument applies to Putin and not to Ukraine. It was he who sent in his surrogates to organize non-existent people’s republics. He supplied rebel forces with mercenaries and heavy military equipment.
Julia Ioffe, writing in the New Republic, argues that that “this conflict is officially out of control.” The “officially out of control” story is dangerous because it seems to absolve Putin of guilt and responsibility. His guys are no longer under his control. What is poor Putin to do?
Wrong! Putin’s surrogates are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. They just made a slight mistake. He sent them in not to carry out a plan of military conquest but to create a frozen war of disinformation, diversion, sabotage, intimidation, and military skirmishes that could go on forever. In a permanent frozen war, tragedies like MH17 are bound to happen.
Putin’s frozen war operation is nothing more than the old mafia gambit of sending thugs in to occupy the diner of an owner who refuses to pay protection money. The thugs make the diner so unpleasant and miserable that the owner either pays up or moves out. Putin’s mafia operators – Strelkov, Demon, Borodai, Khmury, and Khodakovsky – do the same. They blow up bridges, roads, and rail stations. They arrest and torture those suspected of supporting the Ukrainian cause. They kidnap journalists and election observers. They erect check points along all roads. They engage the Ukrainian army, and shoot down its planes with missiles.
No. Things are not out of Putin’s control. Putin can end it at any time, but he sees no reason to do so. The West’s response has been puny, to put it in the most favorable light. He is getting from his troops what he wants. It’s just a shame they made this one mistake which he must now cover up. But no matter, Putin knows how to handle propaganda.
MH 17 is a game changer in one sense. The West now sees and will see more of what Putin is actually doing to east Ukraine. It also resolves a semantic debate. Ukraine has insisted on calling the rebels “terrorists.” Russia wants them to be called “separatists,” or “People’s militia.” We now know who is right.
One thing is certain. Putin will not allow any of the people mentioned in this piece to be interrogated. The Russian response will be a giant stonewall. People will disappear. They can no longer be found. All of you should watch your backs, starting right now.
No matter how much smoke Kremlin PR specialists blow, they cannot deny the following facts concerning the MH17 crash at around 4:30 pm on July 17 over the east Ukrainian town of Snizhne:
First, separatist forces, hammered by Ukraine’s control of the air over Donetsk and Luhansk, were in desperate need of surface-to-air missiles to stem the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation. According to state department intelligence, tanks, armored personnel carriers and missile launchers crossed into Ukraine in large numbers starting around June 30. (Even after the MH17 disaster, Russia continues to send in heavy military equipment.)
Second, separatist forces shot down ten Ukrainian aircraft over rebel held territory, including planes flying at altitudes beyond the range of shoulder-held missiles (MANPADS). The missiles were so effective that Ukrainian forces had to halt flights over the region. On July 17, Ukrainian aircraft operating in the eastern zone were grounded.
Third, Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down late afternoon on July 17 by a SAM missile launched near the site that downed a Ukrainian AN-26 at 21,000 feet three days earlier – again above the range of shoulder-fired missiles.
Fourth, U.S. radar and space-based assets detected a surface-to-air missile launch seconds before MH17 was hit from same occupied area near the town of Snizhne.
Fifth, within 15 minutes of the disappearance of MH17, the commander of separatist forces, Colonel Igor Strelkov, boasted on social media that his forces had blown another Ukrainian aircraft from “his” skies. Shortly after this posting, the announcement was removed from Strelkov’s site.
Sixth, the commander of the rebel Vostok Battalion, Aleksandr Khodakovsky, acknowledged to Reuters reporters that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and that it was sent back to Russia to remove evidence from Ukrainian soil. The commander retracted his statement after the Russian head of the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk issued his own denial (and also denied receiving any weapons from Russia), but the cat was already out of the bag.
These facts will be confirmed by the international investigation. They are more than sufficient to prove that separatist forces shot down MH17. Russian propaganda must disprove these six facts, and it cannot. The only option is to spin fantasy stories (Putin’s plane was the target, MH17 was full of dead bodies) that appeal to the kook fringe of conspiracy theorists.
The main task of the international investigation, which Vladimir Putin purports to support, will be to determine Russian culpability in the downing of MH17. The obvious fact that the flight was downed by rebel forces is of lesser importance.
The investigation should begin with the interrogations of separatists and Russian officers, whose conversations before and after the crash were intercepted and released by Ukrainian intelligence. They give the names, locations, and telephone numbers of the talkers and the times and locations of the conversation. The content of these conversations goes a long way in determining Russian culpability, contrary to Putin’s claim that Russia has nothing to do with the conflict.
Russian propaganda dismisses these taped conversations as forgeries, hastily contrived by Ukrainian intelligence after the catastrophe. But this is what international investigations are for. Investigators can interview Ukrainian intelligence agents who taped the calls. They can use the latest technology to test their authenticity. Most important, they can interrogate the separatist and Russian agents who took part in the disputed intercepted conversations.
I have summarized the contents of the intercepted calls in Intercepted Transcripts Indicating Russian Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH17 and Russian Separatists Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH17. My If Putin ‘Mans Up,’ His Regime Will Crumble included a You Tube of conversations between Khodakovsky (the commander of the rebel Azov Battalion), which has been removed but is available in other outlets.
If these voice recordings are authenticated by the investigators, they will give the investigation key leads in answering the key questions of who did what and when they did it.
Russian culpability hinges on the answers to six questions:
First question: How, when, and from where were the BUKs delivered to separatist rebels in east Ukraine?
Investigators should interrogate Oleg Bugrov, chief of staff of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Luhansk about his July 14 conversation with “Oreon,” a Russian military intelligence officer, focusing on his statement “Now we have BUKs, we can bring planes down.”
Interrogate Sergei Khmury, deputy chief of Igor Strelkov, commander of rebel forces of the so-called People’s republic of Donetsk, about his July 17 conversation with “Botsman,” of Russian military intelligence and rebel activist “Buryat” stating, “Thank God, BUK-M arrived today in the morning” and that “it had crossed the line” (meaning border).
Importance: Russia and the separatist forces deny that rebels had BUKs, or that, if they did, they were captured from Ukrainian forces. These conversations talk about BUKs crossing a border, not about BUKs stolen from Ukraine. Russia supplied its rebels with the BUK that brought down MH17.
Second question: Did crews accompany the BUKs or were rebel experts trained? If so, where?
Interrogate Khmury about his July 17 conversation with “Buryat” in which “Buryat” informs him that the BUK arrived with a crew.
Importance: BUK missile systems require a minimum of several weeks of training, which could only be supplied by the Russian military. If crews accompanied the BUKs, they were likely assembled by the Russian military or trained by military training centers, presumed to be located near Rostov.
Third question: What was the chain of command for positioning and launching BUKs missiles?
Interrogate Khmury about his separate July 17 conversations with “Buryat” and “Sanych” about hiding the BUK, putting the BUK in a column with tanks, and hiding it behind “motel.” There are also other instructions about where the BUKs should be located or whether they should be hidden.
Interrogate Ukrainian intelligence on its claim that it has evidence that a “Russian officer pulled the trigger on MH17.” This would be a key piece of evidence of direct Russian involvement, and it is up to the Ukraine side to back it with verifiable evidence.
Importance: These communications suggest that the top leadership of the separatists were in the loop on the inventory of BUKs and were in charge of their positioning. If a Russian officer pulled the trigger, this suggests that the Kremlin did not place such dangerous equipment in the hands of raw terrorists but kept control itself. This is a question of vital significance.
Fourth question: After the crash, who did the rebels inform?
Interrogate Igor Strelkov (real name Girkin), the self-appointed commander of the People’s Republic of Donetsk, about his social media posting a few minutes after crash about the shooting down of a transport plane: “This will teach them not to fly in our skies.” Ask Strelkov why he removed the announcement a few minutes later.
Interrogate Igor Bezler (alias Demon) about his conversation with Russian military intelligence colonel, Vasily Geranin, informing him that a plane had been downed some fifteen minutes earlier.
Interrogate “Major” reporting to “Grek” that the plane had been destroyed by their Cossacks launching from a checkpoint, that the plane was a civilian aircraft, and the scene was a “sea of bodies.”
Importance: These communications suggest that Moscow was informed almost immediately about the crash and must have know immediately that MH17 was shot down by its own rebels. Putin would have known immediately.
Fifth question: Did the rebels decide themselves to keep international observers from the crash site or were they ordered by higher authorities to do so?
Interrogate the commander of the Azov battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, cell phone number 380506456469, about his conversations with Oleksij and Andrij working at the crash scene on July 18, starting at 5:53 pm, in which he instructs separatists to gather and hide wreckage, to give evidence only to Strelkov’s or Khmury’s people, to find and hide the black boxes, and that “high-level people in Moscow are very interested in this being done.”
Importance: The sabotage of the investigation was ordered by the highest levels of the separatist forces and seemed to be ordered by Moscow, despite Putin’s claim of complete cooperation. (Another Putin lie?)
Sixth question: Where is the BUK system that fired the missile now and how did it get there?
Interrogate Khodakovsky about his statement that the BUK that shot down MH17 has been removed to Russia to hide the evidence.
Interrogate Ukrainian intelligence officers about their information that the BUK crossed the Ukrainian border into Russia in the early morning hours following the shooting down of MH17.
Importance: The surreptitious removal of the most important piece of evidence from Ukraine was designed to hamper the investigation and shows that Putin has no intention of real cooperation with the investigation.
Pan Am 101 was destroyed by a bomb over Lockerbie Scotland in December of 1988. Arrest warrants were issued for two Libyan nationals in 1991. In 2003, Mohammar Khadaffi agreed to pay compensation to the victims’ families in return for dropping UN sanctions. The case was broken based upon fragments of textiles found in the wreckage.
The solving of MH17 is a piece of cake compared to Pan Am 101. Although the crash site was intentionally corrupted by separatists, plenty of evidence of a missile must remain. There are satellite images of the missile launch, and investigators have intercepted phone calls among those persons likely responsible for the catastrophe.
We would expect that the investigation will lead to a clear verdict, which will be disputed by the Russian side. Also, insofar as the missile launch took place in what has been declared by the Red Cross as a war zone, we would expect war crime indictments from the Den Haag tribunal of responsible persons, such as Strelkov, Bezler, Khmury, Khodakovsky, and others. If the investigation shows that the Russian military supplied the weapons that caused the crash, there could also be indictments of high-level Russian military officers, up to the defense minister. As a sponsor of terrorism, the Russian state would be responsible for compensating the victims’ families.
Can the world community hold Vladimir Putin responsible for MH17? Putin himself blames Ukraine for creating the conditions under which such a tragedy could occur. According to Putin, Ukraine is at fault for not capitulating to his demands. This argument applies to Putin and not to Ukraine. It was he who sent in his surrogates to organize non-existent people’s republics. He supplied rebel forces with mercenaries and heavy military equipment.
Julia Ioffe, writing in the New Republic, argues that that “this conflict is officially out of control.” The “officially out of control” story is dangerous because it seems to absolve Putin of guilt and responsibility. His guys are no longer under his control. What is poor Putin to do?
Wrong! Putin’s surrogates are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. They just made a slight mistake. He sent them in not to carry out a plan of military conquest but to create a frozen war of disinformation, diversion, sabotage, intimidation, and military skirmishes that could go on forever. In a permanent frozen war, tragedies like MH17 are bound to happen.
Putin’s frozen war operation is nothing more than the old mafia gambit of sending thugs in to occupy the diner of an owner who refuses to pay protection money. The thugs make the diner so unpleasant and miserable that the owner either pays up or moves out. Putin’s mafia operators – Strelkov, Demon, Borodai, Khmury, and Khodakovsky – do the same. They blow up bridges, roads, and rail stations. They arrest and torture those suspected of supporting the Ukrainian cause. They kidnap journalists and election observers. They erect check points along all roads. They engage the Ukrainian army, and shoot down its planes with missiles.
No. Things are not out of Putin’s control. Putin can end it at any time, but he sees no reason to do so. The West’s response has been puny, to put it in the most favorable light. He is getting from his troops what he wants. It’s just a shame they made this one mistake which he must now cover up. But no matter, Putin knows how to handle propaganda.
MH 17 is a game changer in one sense. The West now sees and will see more of what Putin is actually doing to east Ukraine. It also resolves a semantic debate. Ukraine has insisted on calling the rebels “terrorists.” Russia wants them to be called “separatists,” or “People’s militia.” We now know who is right.
One thing is certain. Putin will not allow any of the people mentioned in this piece to be interrogated. The Russian response will be a giant stonewall. People will disappear. They can no longer be found. All of you should watch your backs, starting right now.
