Weeks before the Oct. 19 Canadian federal election, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party has committed to scrapping plans to buy 65Lockheed Martin F-35AJoint Strike Fighters to replace the air force’s CF-18 Hornets.
Instead, the party would launch a competition for a less expensive substitute, and eliminate “first-strike stealth” from its requirements, as part of a strategy that emphasizes air defense and maritime capabilities. This is the first such specific commitment from a major Canadian political party.
Election numbers and political predictions suggest there is a strong chance the fighter deal will be opened to competition, whether or not the F-35 is excluded. “One way or another, the F-35 in Canada is dead,” a Liberal politician with experience in fighter programs says.
Canada is one of the five largest potential and current F-35 export customers. JSF program office director Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan told the ComDef conference in Washington Sept. 9 that “you will not see a bomb-burst on my watch” — that is, program partners going their separate ways — so a Canadian competition would be a public blow to the effort.  Conversely, it would be a major opportunity for rivals: “Everybody who isn’t Lockheed Martin is a bit thrilled today,” a Dassault representative says.
Recent polling shows all three major parties – the centrist Liberals, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s incumbent Conservative party and the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) – running neck and neck, each within one or two points of 30% of the vote. Observers see the most likely result as an attempt by one party to form a minority government, but this has to be able to muster enough votes to pass a government, with a Liberal-NDP alliance being more likely than an Liberal-Conservative pact.
Canada is a partner in the F-35 program and a signatory to the 2006 production, sustainment and follow-on development agreement, but has not ordered any aircraft. The Harper government attempted in 2010 to procure the F-35 on a sole-source basis, but despite an absolute majority has been unable to because of pro-competition procurement laws and political opposition.
A 2012 report by Canada’s auditor-general challenged the Department of National Defense’s justification for an exemption to the laws, and the Harper government transferred authority for the fighter program to a special secretariat within the nation’s public works department. The New Democrats have consistently called for a competition.