Trump left the Open Skies
Treaty, but don’t write it off yet
By: Joe Gould , Valerie Insinna , and Aaron Mehta 1 day
ago
54
An OC-135B Observation
Aircraft with the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron, Offutt AFB, Neb., goes through
pre-flight checks Jan. 16 at Joint Base Andrews. The OC-135B is used to conduct
observation flights in support of the Open Skies Treaty. (US Air Force)
WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump made good Saturday on his decision to withdraw the U.S. from
the Open Skies Treaty, but it looks like
President-elect Joe Biden, who opposed that move, may have a path to revive the
pact.
Because it
could take months for the Air Force to move through the legal and bureaucratic
processes necessary to decommission the Boeing OC-135B planes flown from
Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., to execute the treaty mission, it appears the
Biden administration would have ample time to reverse course. The treaty
permits 30-plus nations to conduct unarmed, observation flights over each
other’s territory.
“The final
decision on disposition of Open Skies Treaty resources has not yet been made,”
an Air Force official told Defense News on Tuesday. “The 45th Reconnaissance
Squadron at Offutt AFB is still flying local OC-135 missions at a greatly
reduced rate in order to maintain aircrew qualifications, while the Air Force
continues to assess options for realigning, repurposing, or retiring the two
1960s-era OC-135B aircraft, as well as other associated equipment in accordance
with DoD guidance.”
Despite
reports the Trump administration might be scrambling to get rid of the OC-135B
planes, a congressional source said the Air Force plans to keep the planes
until the end of fiscal 2021 and service leaders had yet to make a firm
decision about what to do with them.
The administration,
with backing from a number of Republican lawmakers, announced in May it wanted
out of the treaty because Russia was violating the pact, and imagery collected
during the flights can be obtained quickly at less cost from U.S. or commercial
satellites. U.S. allies tried to forestall the move and generally argue
the treaty is a valuable channel for transparency and dialogue between Russia
and the United States, the world’s top two nuclear superpowers.
Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo said at the time that the U.S. and allies in the pact lived
up to their treaty commitments and obligations, but “Russia has flagrantly and
continuously violated the treaty in various ways for years. This is not a story
exclusive to just the treaty on Open Skies, unfortunately, for Russia has been
a serial violator of many of its arms control obligations and commitments.”
The
overflights were set up decades ago to promote trust and avert conflict, and
Biden has panned the idea of a withdrawal, saying it would “exacerbate growing
tensions between the West and Russia, and increase the risks of miscalculation
and conflict.”
The Air Force cancels its Open Skies recapitalization
program after US pulls out from treaty
The service formally canceled the program on July
14.
By: Valerie Insinna
Given the
partisan dynamics of the Senate, it’s unclear the upper chamber could muster
the two-thirds majority required to re-ratify the treaty. However, Biden may be
able to re-enter the treaty in a way that would not require formal advice and
consent from the Senate, according to Alexandra Bell, the senior policy
director at the Council for a Livable World.
One path is
for Biden to craft an executive agreement requiring simple majority approval in
both houses. Parties to the treaty would need to be on board and Congress would
also need to approve funds for continued U.S. participation. Trump’s potential
scuttling of the planes “might complicate diplomatic options, but the incoming
Biden administration will likely make choices about the future of the treaty
based on national security considerations, not the Trump team’s ‘salt the
earth’ behavior,” Bell said.
Democrats and
some Republicans have urged Biden to rejoin the treaty once in office.
In a statement
to Defense News, Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a retired Air Force brigadier general
who commanded the 55th Wing at Offutt, noted that the OC-135s can be used to
collect unclassified images during disaster response missions and other roles
in support of civil authorities. They were used in the aftermath of the 2010
earthquake in Haiti to assess the damage and direct resources, he said.
“My hope is
that the move to end Open Skies will be reversed as it is an essential
operation. In the meantime, we should not make any moves to scrap the 135′s because the OC-135B aircraft already fill important additional roles
above and beyond the Open Skies treaty,” Bacon said.
“The small
cost of the two Open Skies aircraft is offset by the observations they enable,
as well as the benefits they deliver outside of the treaty mission. Considering
these benefits, and the potential that we may yet rejoin the treaty, it’s
important to maintain the aircraft for the time being.”
Democrats have
ripped Trump over a broader pattern of discarding arms control and
non-proliferation agreements. Some question the legality of Trump’s pullout
from Open Skies, citing language in the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act
that reaffirmed congressional support for the treaty and mandated the
administration justify a withdrawal four months before any formal notification
of withdrawal can take place.
This week,
Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Bob Menendez, D-N.J., called
the administration’s withdrawal “reckless” and encouraged Biden to rejoin the
pact once Biden is inaugurated.
There are
Senate Republicans who would likely oppose a reentry. Senate Airland
Subcommittee Chairman Tom Cotton, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Richard Burr, have
worked in various ways to support a withdrawal. Cotton has argued funding for
the OC-135 should go toward nuclear weapons modernization.
“I am pleased that the
Trump administration has taken the final and necessary step to formally
withdraw from this costly and outdated agreement,” Cruz said in a statement
Monday. “Russia will no longer be able to use this treaty to use our skies to
spy on the American people.
Ingen kommentarer:
Legg inn en kommentar
Merk: Bare medlemmer av denne bloggen kan legge inn en kommentar.