The Airlines Most in Danger of Going Under During the Crisis
Which airlines are most at risk? Like the virus, the crisis is indiscriminate,
affecting everyone from budget operators to national flag carriers. Aircraft
manufacturers and their suppliers also are under immense pressure, with Boeing
Co. calling for billions of dollars in state support and Airbus SE extending
credit lines and canceling its dividend.
Using the Z-score method
developed by Edward Altman in the 1960s to predict bankruptcies, Bloomberg News
filtered out listed commercial airlines to identify the ones most at risk of
going bust, based on available data. The calculations don't take into account
government bailouts or other funding sources that could help keep operators
alive.
While the list is concentrated in Asia, mostly due to high debt
levels, European carriers aren't immune, as the collapse of U.K. regional
airline Flybe Group Plc proved. According to Altman, scores of 1.8 or below
indicate a risk of bankruptcy and scores over 3 suggest sound footing. Indebted
low-cost carrier Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA and Air France-KLM both landed below
the threshold, as did American Airlines Group Inc. and SkyWest Inc.
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