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Paris Air Show 2013 preview

AEROSPACE Editor in Chief TIM ROBINSON provides a preview of 
what to look forward to at this year’s Paris Air Show on 17-23 June

Look to the skies in June (Airbus)

In mid-June, the focus of the global aerospace community will alight on Le
Bourget, for the 50th Salon International de l’Aeronautique et de l’Espace or
the Paris Air Show. Taking place from 17-23 June, this (along with
Farnborough) massive trade exhibition is a key global place for the aviation
and space industries to show off their latest aircraft and wares, make deals
and announce news.

The previous Paris Air Show in 2011 saw some 2,113 exhibitors from 45
countries, some 151,000 visitors on the trade days and some 204,000
public visitors. In addition, the 2011 show boasted some 150 aircraft in
the static and flying display, hosting some 3,200 journalists from every
corner of the globe and saw 1,400 aircraft sold – with some £102.5bn
worth of deals announced at the show.

Fully booked

There will be longer opening hours this year to allow visitors to take in
more of the show. (GIFAS)

In 2013, the 50th Paris Air Show, the organisers GIFAS hope to go one better.
This year, it has two objectives – giving more business and services to
exhibitors and improving the air show experience for visitors (regular Le
Bourget goers will grimace at the thought of the traffic jams).

So far, this seems to be paying off. The show has been fully booked since
January with 54,000sqm of stands, 340 business chalets and 27 national
pavilions. Some 130 aircraft in static and flying are set to appear, and there
is a record-breaking number of exhibitors coming – some 2,160 companies
from 44 countries – with almost all the top 100 aerospace companies
represented (a notable exception being Northrop Grumman).

For trade exhibitors, the organisers promise a new focus on SMEs and the
supply chain – along with a B2B meetings programme – building on the
success of this activity in 2011. The show will also open longer, new opening
hours (from 6.30am exhibitors/8.30am visitors) allowing more time to see
everything this giant trade exhibition has to offer.

Visitors, too, will see improvements, say the air show organisers. This year,
GIFAS will roll–out an airshow map app with indoor geolocation – enabling
visitors to find stands and chalets more quickly. There will also be free WiFi
on the site, covering not only the halls, but also the chalets and static display
as well. Finally, a dedicated radio station will inform drivers getting to and
from the show of traffic conditions.

So with the show promising a slicker, better experience for both trade and
public visitors, let’s take a look at what some of the major highlights might
be.

Commercial – missing the party?

The Airbus A350XWB undergoing lightning tests. It may have made its
first flight by mid-June. (Airbus)

In commercial aviation, the industry according to some, is on the brink of a
huge
 civil aerospace super-cycle as new types ramp-up in production (like the
787)others count down to first flights (A350, CSeries, MRJ) and successors
to bestselling single-aisle aircraft (A320neo and 737 MAX) wait in the wings.

Making the news, this year will be home champion Airbus, as its new A350
XWBprepares for first flight. Indeed it may have already flown just before the
show.However, the show organisers and Airbus itself have ruled it out from
appearingat the show, either on static or during the flying display. In comparison
to theprevious pomp and razzmatazz of other airliner roll-outs (A380, 787)
Airbus is notknown to be planning any high-profile roll-out for VIPs. A sign of
austerity in theaerospace sector, or perhaps an attempt (after cracked wings and
battery fires) to placate the aviation gods of hubris and hype?

That does leave one tantalizing possibility though for Le Bourget attendees – in
that a test flight might be scheduled so that the route includes a flypast of the
airshow? In the past, the USAF has done this for flyovers of the Farnborough
with its B-52 bomber. Could Toulouse be planning a similar surprise for
showgoers?

Another brand-new civil airliner to just miss the party will be Bombardier’s new
CSeries airliner, which the Canadian airframer is set to fly for the first time at the
end of June. Unlike the A350, though the CSeries has been struggling with
orders so far so a Paris appearance would have provided a welcome boost and
allowed potential waverers to see it up close.

With both the A350 and the CSeries set to miss Le Bourget, though, it does beg
the question of which air show will see their public debuts? Will Farnborough
2014 be a historic show with the A350, CSeries (and F-35) making their first
airshow appearances? (It is not as far-fetched as it might seem as all have
significant UK content). Or might one manufacturer decide to use the upcoming
 Dubai Air Show in November to show-off its new aircraft and recognise the
shifting power of airline centre of gravity to the East?

Whatever happens, it is clear that for the Paris air Show organisers it must be
 doubly frustrating to miss hosting the public unveilings of not one but two
new civil aircraft by such a narrow margin. However, the potential sight of the
A380 in a British Airways livery is sure to please UK show-goers.

Meanwhile, Boeing will be demonstrating that the 787’s woes are behind it, by
 flying the Dreamliner at Paris – a new development that started last year at
Farnborough. With the world’s aviation media in one place, this will be a key
time for Boeing to reinforce the message that the Dreamliner is safe and that
 its lithium-ion battery solution is robust. There also may be additional big Boeing
news if the company decides to publically launch its 777X airliner – the response
to the king-size A350-1000 which is now picking up orders. There also may be
more news this year on Boeing’s next Eco-demonstrator – which will use a 787
as a testbed for ‘green’ aviation technology.

But it is not just Airbus and Boeing to watch out for at Paris as other new entrants
vie to break into this cosy airliner duopoly. Bombardier’s and its CSeries has
already been mentioned but appearing at Paris will be Sukhoi’s Superjet. Expect
 to hear more about Russia’s larger single-aisle airliner, the Irkut MC-21 as it too
counts down to a first flight in 2015-16.

The air show, too, will also give the opportunity for Brazil’s Embraer to give more
details about its planned re-engining of its best-selling EJet family. Regional
airliner maker ATR, may reveal more about future plans for a larger turboprop it has
been mulling. Japan’s Mitsubishi meanwhile, will be keen to update the world on
progress with its airliner, the MRJ, set to fly at the end of this year.

Additionally, we might hear an update from China’s COMAC about its civil
single-aisle airliner project - the C919. Two previous airshows (Farnborough
2012 and Paris 2011) have seen western airlines in the form of IAG and
Ryanair flirt heavily with COMAC. With Ryanair now satisfied with a recent
deal for 737NGs, who this year might be talking about potential C919 orders?

Finally, although two years ago at the 2011 Paris Air Show, aviation biofuels
were high-profile, the rapid exploitation of energy reserves by the US, along with
lower oil demand from a slowing China, has stabilised fuel prices for airlines,
although they still remain high. At the exhibition, there will be a chance to check
out the latest progress in sustainable aviation with a dedicated alternative
aviation fuels area.

Military – the Russians are coming

The Russians will be at the show in force for the first time since 2001. (Knaapo).

On the military side of the fence, expect glum faces as restrained budgets
continue to hit. In particular the US Pentagon budget cuts and sequestration
has severely affected the world’s biggest defence market – with knock-on effects
for all military manufacturers – not just those in the US. Therefore, US aerospace
and defence companies will be now aggressively searching for additional sales
outside the US, bringing them into intense competition with European companies.
The battleground for this market share will be the Middle East and, in particular,
Asia-Pacific – as Washington ‘pivots’ to that area of the world.

Additionally, there has also been grumbling from the US that Europe needs to
 start paying its way in military budget terms. This, however is unlikely, even if in
the unlikely event of Washington cutting Europe loose – and most foresee a flat defence
market for the next four to five years. Therefore expect to see defence companies
highlighting their work in ‘adjacent’ markets, whether it be cybersecurity, energy or
even deep-sea mining.

F-35 watchers will be disappointed that the West’s super-stealth fighter will miss another
major airshow – despite now arriving in service in greater numbers. A transatlantic
flight (with spare aircraft, tanker support etc) would obviously be a
major undertaking for the Pentagon in such budget-conscious times but with some
Lockheed Martin F-35 partners wavering or thinking about reduced
numbers, a public appearance at this major international air show would have
demonstrated the type’s growing maturity and quietened some critics.

However, combat aircraft fans will be pleased to note a strong presence from
Russian aerospace this year. Sukhoi will be bringing its Su-35, the latest 4/5 Gen
evolution of its Flanker, now entering service with the Russian Air Force. Kamov’s
 twin-seat, co-axial attack helicopter, the Ka-52 is also set to appear. Finally show-
goers will be able to compare and contrast Antonov’s An-70 airlifter with the
Airbus A400M airlifter, which enters service with the French Air Force this year.

This Paris expect UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles), too, to be on the
agenda. Dassault has already flown the pan-European nEUROn stealth combat
UAS in December 2012. Across the Channel, meanwhile, a similar effort from
BAE Systems in the form of the Taranis is expected to fly sometime later this
year in Australia – although the UK MoD is tight-lipped about when exactly.
These two technology demonstrators will inform choices for Europe’s next big
combat aircraft programme. Will it definitely be unmanned? Will another
technology demonstrator programme be needed or could partners move to a
production version? These decisions about the potential way forward for a
European UCAV ‘Eurofighter-style’ project will be outlined in an Anglo-French
report due in the Autumn.

Military rotorcraft may provide another interesting theme at this year’s show. Will
Paris be the venue where Boeing might publically announce its first export order
for theBell/Boeing V-22 Osprey to Israel? Additionally, US defence helicopter
requirements may also provide an insight into future next-generation rotorcraft
designs – with co-axial and tiltorotors aiming to replace the ubitiqious Blackhawk
in US Army service. With the UH-60 Blackhawk family in widespread service
around the world, this competition will be of interest beyond US shores.

Future concepts, too, will be revealed by missile house MBDA, which in previous
air shows has revealed micro-missiles for infantry and precision munitions for
UAVs. These ‘future concepts’ are not  intended to be production weapons, but
act as a sort of ‘concept car’ future technology platform to showcase trends and
thinking in missiles.

UAS – civil applications

UAV’s (or ‘drones’) are now finding more peaceful uses, such as monitoring
tigers and rhinos to protect them from poachers. (WWF).

The show will also highlight the growing roles and missions for UAVs and, in
particular, the potential for civil applications, which could range from search
and rescue, to anti-rhino poaching, to even, if one proposal was to believed –
pizza delivery.  Driving this is not only the UAS technology as it becomes smaller
and cheaper but also the human element as a new skilled aerospace occupation
 has been created – the UAV operator. Post Afghan draw-down in 2014, what
might these ex-military UAS experts do? In a previous age, the pioneering pilots
post-WW1  flew stunt planes, carried mail, formed airlines and created our
modern aviation landscape. Could this happen again?

There still remain obstacles - most notably in sharing airspace but also from the
 public perception of ‘drones’. However, work is now underway in the US,
Europe, the US and elsewhere to unlock this promising new civil market.

General Aviation

This Dassault Mystere 20 started the Falcon family off. (Dassault).

Meanwhile in business aviation the organisers have stressed that this year ‘
business aviation is back’ - with only Cessna missing from the line-up of the
big general aviation and business manufacturers.  Home champions Dassault
Aviation will be in a special mood for celebration, with its 50th anniversary.
A  restored Mystere 20 bizjet (S/n 1) is set to appear at the show to mark
the occasion of 50 years of Falcon business jets.

Showgoers, too, will also be able to learn more about the new bizjet from
Switzerland’s Pilatus, the PC-24, set to be unveiled at the EBACE Show in
Geneva on 21 May.

Space

On 7 May, ESA successfully launched the second mission with its new
lightweight Vega launcher. (ESA)

It is also noteworthy that the exhibition will include a significant presence from
the ever-growing space sector – especially as each month now it seems, a new
space entrepreneurial idea is launched – whether it is mining asteroids or a
global reality TV show Mars expedition. Exhibitors at Paris include established
space and satellite companies like Astrium, Arianespace, and ThalesAlenia
Space as well as those seeking to get in on the action. With the mid-life upgrade
to Ariane 5, the 5ME approved last year and a follow-on Ariane 6 planned, Europe
is working hard to keep its space launchers ahead of the competition. Additionally
the show may also be an opportunity  for ESA to provide an update on the joint
NASA/ESA MPCV which will see an Orion/ATV spacecraft combination for deep
space exploration.

Careers

The ‘Careers Plane’ will be a focus for inspiring the next generation into
aerospace careers. (GIFAS)

Finally another theme to watch for this year at Paris is a continued emphasis
on inspiring the next generation of pilots, engineers and technicians. The engineering
skills shortfall that the aerospace industry is facing is not just a UK problem – it is
Europewide. Without fresh blood entering the industry, European aerospace faces
eventual decline, loss of competitiveness and being sidelined by the emerging
powerhouses such as India and China. Looking at the giant European enterprises
ofEADS, BAE Systems, Finmeccanica and others this may seem impossible,but
the long development cycles of today’s aerospace programmes means it is vital
now to attract the young people who will design, build, fly and maintain the aircraft
of tomorrow. To that end the Air Show will feature a brand new exhibit in the static
area – a life-size ‘Careers plane’. This representation of an aircraft will be split into
parts and allow young people to see how the different parts of the aerospace
industry combine to make a complete product. The organisers believe this will be a
prime focus for those attending the show who want to find out more about joining
 the industry.

Summary

Le Bourget is still a valuable showcase to display to those outside the industry
what is going on in aerospace. (GIFAS)

There is no doubt that Paris, like Farnborough, continues to be a major fixture
in the aerospace calendar. But is the appeal of these big trade exhibitions
declining? Some point to the rise in specialist trade shows on niche sectors, such
as EBACE and NBAA covering business aviation. Others point to the growing
strength of Dubai and Singapore Air Shows as indicators that the European-
based aerospace events are time-limited.  Critics, too, also point to a lack of
new types leading to stale static and aerial displays, compared to the golden
years of the 1950s and 1960s where each show saw many new aircraft make
their public debuts. Finally, some also dislike the ‘showbusiness’ aspect of the
exhibition, where news is saved up for June, the staggering cost to companies
attending and the artificial frenzy of the week, with deals perhaps being actually
arranged elsewhere.

Yet despite these gripes, Le Bourget still continues to provide a valuable, vital and
‘must attend’ showcase for the global aerospace industry.  It may have changed in
character, but where else can you find the top aviation and aerospace decision
makers and VVIPs in the same city, in the same place at the same time? This is
important, particularly when the industry has become so global and geographically
spread out. Skype and videoconferencing may mean deals are made elsewhere,
 but the show is still important for the human element in sealing that billion dollar
deal.