Boeing Revisits Past In Hunt For 737/757
Successors
For years, Boeing wrestled with how to replace a best--selling single-aisle
product with an all-new design in one size s-ector while simultaneously
protecting the longer-range, middle-of-the-market (MOM) from the predatory
ambitions of Airbus.
Although this may sound like the 737 and 757 replacement conundrum faced
by Boeing today, it is, in fact, the scenario that challenged the company almost
40 years ago. In the 1970s Boeing was grappling with how to replace the 727 and
at the same time counter the emerging threat of the Airbus A310, the first
derivative of the A300 family.
In a curious parallel to the situation today, Boeing's market analysis for
filling the 180-300-seat gap in the 1970s indicated that although the two
requirements overlapped, it was too difficult to meet them both with a
single-fuselage cross-section aircraft. A single aisle worked better for the
lower end, but did not stretch very well. A twin aisle worked better for the
upper end, but equally did not shrink well. As a result, for almost six years in
the 1970s, the company exhaustively studied two concepts: a single-aisle twin
dubbed the 7N7 and a widebody twin called the 7X7.
Most observers at the time believed Boeing would develop one or the other
but not both, at least not immediately. It was therefore with some surprise that
between 1978-79, over a period of less than eight months, the company
ambitiously began the simultaneous development of both aircraft. The 7X7 became
the 767 in July 1978, while the 757, formerly the 7N7, received the production
go-ahead the following March.
But will Boeing repeat history to answer the long-running 737/757
replacement question, and if so, why? The answers lie in the way the 757 and 767
were developed and, more important, in what they share in common. Although
designed to serve very different markets, Boeing ended up developing the 757 and
767 as sister aircraft that shared key design features, including common
cockpits, and used many common parts and systems. The novel approach reduced
development cost and made the aircraft more attractive to operators of both
types.
Among U.S. carriers seeking a long-range narrowbody aircraft, American andJetBlue Airways have been most vocal in publicly asking manufacturers to build a new jet. American is a long-time Boeing 757 customer, and though it is slowly retiring the aircraft—by the end of December it intends to have 95, down from 117 at the beginning of the year—the airline has not announced plans to completely shed the type.
Airlines Signal Demand For Long-range Narrowbody
Airlines are slowly retiring the Boeing 757, but many are asking: What model could take its place?
While a large proportion of the Boeing 757 fleet remains in service 10 years after production ended in October 2004, its major operators have begun to retire the type. They and other airlines are looking at aircraft that could replace it.
According to Boeing, 880 of the 1,050 757s built are still in service. Delta Air Lines,American Airlines, United Airlines, Fedex and UPS are by far the largest operators and fly around two- thirds of the current 757 fleet, with the rest used by many secondary airlines and some niche players, such as Icelandair.
At American, the Airbus A321 is replacing the 757 and for most routes, such as Dallas to Seattle and Dallas to Las Vegas, it is nearly a perfect substitute. American has outfitted its standard A321s with 184 seats, the same number as it has had on many of its domestic 757s. In the future, other routes now flown by the 757 could also be covered by the 737 MAX, of which American has ordered 100. Even relatively long routes, such as Los Angeles to Hawaii or Dallas into much of South America, could eventually be flown by narrowbody aircraft already on order (Phoenix to Hawaii, now flown by a US Airways757, might be trickier.)
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