Ryanair crisis: aviation industry expert warns 600,000 new pilots needed
in next 20 years
Tilmann GabrielSenior Lecturer, City,
University of LondonTilmann Gabriel is Executive Chairman and
President of the International Pilot Training
Association.Ryanair's announcement that it is cancelling 18,000
flights between November and March has understandably evoked the ire of the
400,000 customers affected. And, hot on the heels of news that it was cancelling
up to 50 flights a day from mid-September to the end of October, it is facing a
PR nightmare and trouble with regulators.
Amid the outrage, the reason
for the cancellations has been largely lost. The airline said it "messed up in
the planning of pilot holidays". But this is part of a major industry-wide
problem. Ryanair might be one of the first to feel the pinch in Europe, but
there is a global pilot shortage which has been a long time in the
making.
The industry currently employs 500,000 professional pilots
worldwide and reportedly needs another 600,000 in the next 20 years to cover the
retirement of pilots and the 6% growth of another 35,000 airliners entering the
global market. Shortfalls of pilots have already hit US airlines this year,
starting with small regional ones, and have been visible in India and China for
a while now. Ryanair is the first European airline to be hit.
The food
chain of aircraft type, airline, salary, benefits and personal lifestyle
preferences for pilots determines where they look to work. Long gone are the
times where pilots were employed for life by one airline. Like employees in most
industries these days, pilots are choosing and managing their
careers.
The pilot shortfall spiral
Low-cost carriers such as
Ryanair actually do a superior job in training new pilots into their first
airline job, training far more than most other airlines. But the task for
Ryanair is never ending, as many pilots will leave after three years - at the
end of their initial commitment - when they have gained enough experience.
Pilots tend to move on to airlines which give them better pay or working
conditions, or offer a more suiting lifestyle such as long-haul flying or
different home bases. As Ryanair expands, the demand for pilots is continually
growing.
Airlines can manage occasional shortfalls with vacation
embargoes - where crew are not allowed to take their holiday over a certain
period. Sometimes, pilots have accrued several years of vacation and the airline
can pay some of it off. But labour laws in Europe provide strong support for
employees who want to take their holiday. Plus, when a pilot resigns for a new
job, they often leave the next day as they have so many vacation days left,
which can cause unforeseen gaps in scheduling.
This is a spiral which is
hard for an airline to get out of when things get tough. It is a problem clearly
forecast but often ignored, resulting in the need for airlines to apply quick
and costly solutions.
An industry which is producing US$5.6 trillion
worth of aircraft in the next 20 years will have to get serious about tackling
this shortfall as a combined and global challenge. Immediate bonus payments
after a certain commitment time are already common practice. So the salary
structure and the benefits of a pilot will need to quickly improve.
The
costs of training
Pilots take a long time to train. Next to finding a
large number of interested students for the recruitment and assessment, each
student has to currently bring £100,000 to the flight school for the 18-24 month
training programme, which they pay for themselves. They then have to undergo
specific type-training (each aircraft type needs a specific license) and gain
1,500 hours in a multi-crew environment to earn a full professional Airline
Transport Pilot license. Typically, this takes two to three years, where the
airline pays a reduced salary, covers the initial type rating costs of £30,000
and commits the pilot to the airline that pays for it.
The cost for the
initial training is prohibitive for many students who would like to get into the
pilot profession. Solutions such as sponsorship and bank credits could be
explored. In the past this career choice was left completely to the interested
student.
But not enough pilots are being trained this way, for example
new professional licenses declined from 2015 to 2016 by 9% in the UK. Then
there's a further issue that not all students go on to get jobs immediately, as
airline assessments happen only after pilot training is completed and a
proportion of students fail.
It's clear that training schools, airlines
and other related institutions must work together to find sustainable solutions
to this crisis. The attractiveness of careers as an airline pilot as well as job
opportunities and mentoring for new pilots must be addressed.
Young
people have a range of opportunities for interesting careers. So it must remain
attractive from a regional and global perspective. The salaries and benefits
from airlines are part of this, as is support for training costs, either direct
or via industry-based funding institutions.
Otherwise airlines will pay
for the shortfall in the long run. An aircraft which is parked due to a
shortfall of pilots is costly. The monthly lease rate of US$200,000 to
US$700,000 per aircraft still has to be paid, which, together with the lost
revenues and other provisional costs, easily amounts to a few million dollars
per parked aircraft each month. Not to mention the PR nightmare from flight
cancellations.
Ryanair must develop a strategy which secures a regular
intake of pilots, acknowledging that these employees are key to its operations
and need to be looked after and mentored. The fact that its main competitor
EasyJet has no pilot problems at this time is a clear sign that a well-treated
pilot workforce is proof of
success.
http://theconversation.com/ryanair-crisis-aviation-industry-expert-warns-600-000-new-pilots-needed-in-next-20-years-84852
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