Vil USA virkelig få til Open Skies med Kina?

USA har problemer med selskapene fra emiratene og Norwegian; nå også med Kina?

Chinese airlines overtake US carriers across the Pacific. The big dilemma: US-China open skies?

There were two prominent themes at CAPA's Americas Aviation Summit in Las Vegas on 27/28 Apr-2015. First was the intensity with which some US airlines fear competing with Gulf carriers, which operate under open skies regimes to the US.

Second - and of more lasting importance - was how important North America, and especially the United States, will be to international growth from Chinese airlines. Air China VP and GM North America Dr Zhihang Chi called China-US services "low-hanging fruit" while Hainan Airlines VP Hou Wei said North America was the biggest opportunity for Hainan, which recently announced its intent to take 30 787-9s, mostly for North American service. Although the two themes may seem separate, they are becoming interwoven.

For years the US has wanted open skies, while China, whose airlines were smaller than America's, wanted gradual expansion. But now the tables are turning. In summer 2015 Chinese airlines for the first time in history will be larger than their US counterparts between the US and China. The rapid change of pace and with more growth clearly to come, is giving US airlines cause to reflect on their experience with Gulf carriers.

As a new round of bilateral negotiations approaches, US airlines may no longer favour open skies with China, hoping to keep the liberalisation genie in the bottle and prevent another influx of foreign carrier capacity. Consumers, tourism bodies and the US government may have another fight looming.