Europe's air
travel impetus was waning before Omicron
Premium Analysis
Based on current schedules, Europe's
4Q2021 capacity projection has stabilised at 71% of 2019 levels.
Looking ahead to 1Q2022, 88% is projected.
However, even before the emergence of the 'Omicron' variant of the coronavirus,
the pattern of previous quarters suggests that this is likely to be trimmed.
The World Health Organisation has said that the
global risk from Omicron is "very high", dubbing it a variant of
concern. There have been some increases in travel restrictions as a result and
the outlook for 1Q2022 is now more uncertain.
Europe's
capacity recovery has anyway lost momentum in recent weeks. Seat numbers
for Europe are
28.7% below the equivalent week of 2019 in the week of 29-Nov-2021. This
represents a slide of 4.1ppts over the past five weeks.
Europe is
now down from fourth to fifth (just) in the regional capacity recovery
ranking. Asia Pacific capacity
is down by 36.8%, but the Middle East is
slightly above Europe, with
seats down by 28.5%. Africa is
down by 25.0%, Latin America by
14.4%, and North America by
13.7%.
For Europe and
all regions, Omicron's impact will shape the next phase of aviation's recovery.
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