Ukraine will be outgunned 10 to 1 by Russia in
weeks without US support, top general in Europe says
By
SVETLANA SHKOLNIKOVA
STARS AND STRIPES • April
10, 2024
Army
Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the NATO supreme allied commander, answers a question
Jan. 18, 2024, at a news conference in Brussels. (NATO)
WASHINGTON — The
commander of U.S. forces in Europe warned Wednesday that Ukraine will be
outgunned 10 to one by Russia in weeks if the U.S. fails to approve additional
funding for military aid that has stalled in Congress.
Army Gen.
Christopher Cavoli, who leads U.S. European Command and is NATO supreme allied
commander, told the House Armed Services Committee that Russia’s artillery
advantage over Ukraine will soon double, allowing Ukraine to only fire back one
shell in response to 10 Russian ones.
“The situation is
extremely serious,” he said. “The biggest killer on the battlefield is
artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped
supplying.”
The U.S. provides
the “lion’s share” of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine and is also the
main supplier of the country’s ground-based air defense — “the most critical
things on the battlefield,” Cavoli said.
Russia’s frequent
large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine are expected to become more devastating
as Ukraine’s supply of interceptors for air defense dwindle, he said.
“Those attacks
would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military
of Ukraine if they were not defended against,” Cavoli said. “Without U.S.
provision of interceptors, that will happen.”
Cavoli offered his
assessment of the two-year war as a $95
billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel that passed the
Senate in February continued to languish in the House. The White House
requested the funds in October.
House Speaker Mike
Johnson, R-La., has indicated he will bring the supplemental bill to the floor
for a vote, but the slow pace has infuriated many lawmakers and has prompted
efforts to force a vote without Johnson’s approval.
Rep. Elissa
Slotkin, D-Mich., said Wednesday that one tool to circumvent Johnson, a
discharge petition, is only a few members short of the 218 member signatures
necessary to trigger action in the House.
In the meantime,
Ukrainian soldiers are rationing their artillery shells in anticipation of the
supply running out, Cavoli said. They are now being out-shot by the Russians
five-to-one.
European countries
are attempting to fill the artillery gap by increasing their production rates,
but the 11,000 shells that they are producing per year are not enough, and
Ukraine will remain “really dependent” on the U.S. in 2024, according to
Cavoli.
“The [necessary]
production level is not in sight right now. We think it’s at least months away,
and that is why this is such an important time right now,” he said.
Celeste Wallander,
assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said the
U.S. has had to get creative to continue to help Ukraine without additional
funding from Congress. The Pentagon announced Tuesday that it sent Ukraine
thousands of Iranian-made
weapons that had been seized en route to Houthi militants in
Yemen.
The delay in
American weapons support has already given Russia the upper hand, according to
Wallander. Russian forces have made advances as Ukrainians are forced to decide
what to defend, and Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are “really
harming” the country’s electricity grid.
“We are already
seeing the effects of the failure to pass the supplemental,” she said.
Cavoli said he was
optimistic that Ukraine this year will be able to hold onto the territory it
currently controls but only if the U.S. and other allies maintain a steady flow
of supplies.
“Ukraine remains
almost entirely dependent on external support to stay in this fight,” he said.
“The severity of this moment cannot be overstated. If we do not continue to
support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose.”
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