Ryanair has once again suggested it is prepared to establish a low-cost, long-haul route system in the next few years. However, to the surprise of many industry watchers, the carrier retracted the idea three days later with little explanation. Perhaps an in-house dispute or last-minute disagreement triggered the sudden about-face. What the scenario does confirm is that, one way or another, the Irish low-cost carrier’s top management is still toying with the idea, even though no viable business case exists.
Before he dampened expectations, CEO Michael O’Leary was talking about ordering 50 aircraft—Boeing 787s or Airbus A350s—to serve up to 15 city pairs between Europe and North America. The new venture would be, he said, the responsibility of a dedicated subsidiary; the parent airline would not be involved. Ryanair now operates 300-plusBoeing 737-800s, carries about 85 million passengers per year and largely dominates Europe’s low-cost market.
Other low-cost European players in the past several months have discussed the idea of establishing long-haul routes. The most ambitious of them is Norwegian; it seeks to serve the U.S. but is still awaiting needed U.S. government approval on an application it filed in late 2013 that is strongly opposed by major U.S. carriers. The dispute is reminiscent of the ill-fated Skytrain, an initiative fronted by Freddie Laker, an innovative entrepreneur. Skytrain—launched in 1977 with a small fleet of DC-10s—offered discount fares between London and New York, and immediately encountered fierce opposition from major carriers that flew North Atlantic routes.
Credit: Deniel Faget
Reportedly, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) encouraged major carriers to squelch the upstart Skytrain. Some of IATA’s most influential members were accused of an illegal coalition. When all was said and done, despite commercial success and record load factors, Laker filed for bankruptcy. Other attempts at low-cost, long-haul operations have been tried and have failed, in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Today Norwegian appears to be the most credible carrier to take up the challenge: It operates nearly 100 aircraft to 100 destinations, has ordered 262 more and has signed options for another 150. 
But it, too, faces many hurdles. The ambitious 15-city-pair growth plan assumes the carrier can obtain the needed slots at New York John F. Kennedy International or Newark Liberty International in New Jersey. It would also have to contend with strict curfew constraints. Moreover, to operate long-haul aircraft more than the usual 12-14 flight hours per day needed to maintain lower direct operation costs, passengers would have to board at off-peak times. Whether enough travelers would agree to depart at 4 a.m. to save money is not yet known.
These and other such difficulties could explain Ryanair’s cautious approach, and Norwegian has not spelled out its business plan.
Successful low-cost carriers (LCC) do not operate strictly short-haul routes, although some European LCCs operate long-haul flights within their regions.
A few weeks ago, Ryanair executives said they may order up to 30 widebodies for their envisioned LCC long-haul subsidiary. The Irish carrier is apparently expecting Airbus and Boeing to ultimately produce more aircraft than needed. This means white tails could be available at discount prices, analysts say. But no such overproduction is anticipated anytime soon.
O’Leary has always been provocative. Although he appears to have abandoned his long-haul LCC plan for the moment, experience has shown that it will be presented again soon, one way or another. Eventually discount flights will most probably become available on the North Atlantic—the airline industry’s most prestigious route. But for now, no one has a made a practicable business case. 
Editor's note: this story has been updated to correct information about Skytrain, including its launch date and that it was not linked to British Caledonian.